Forecasting, early warning and emergency controlling method for a plurality of fixed chemical risk sources

Abstract

The technical scheme of the invention discloses a forecasting, early warning and emergency controlling method for a plurality of fixed chemical risk sources. The method adopts a calculation system and a display system, wherein the display system is constructed on a GIS platform; and the calculation system comprises a meteorological field numerical forecasting system, a toxicant database and a risk source database. The invention adopts the technical scheme that: real-time observation data of a meteorological observation network in the area of a protected target and a meteorological numerical forecasting result are subjected to data assimilation, and are output to a diffusion adjoint mode to solve the spatial and temporal distribution of an adjoint variable and calculate a risk function so as to acquire the risk degree of a plurality of chemical risk sources on the position of the protected target and determine the early warning levels of the plurality of fixed chemical risk sources and issue the levels through the display system. The technical scheme can acquire the risk degree distribution of all chemical risk sources by only calculation once, and provides the forecasting and early warning data of the risk sources in real time, so that a decision maker can adopt corresponding control measures, organize and prepare emergency forces to carry out emergency control.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting, early warning and emergency control of chemical risk sources, in particular to a method for predicting, early warning and emergency control of multiple fixed chemical risk sources, belonging to the field of chemical risk source prediction and control. Background technique [0002] The current technology of prediction and early warning of a single chemical risk source is relatively mature. But in some major activities, to protect specific targets, we cannot know which of the many chemical risk sources will cause an accident? Theoretically, any chemical risk source has the possibility of an accident, and the usual method is to wait for the accident to carry out a hazard assessment based on the location of the accident and the strength of the source. If so, in order to meet the needs of emergency timeliness, the Gauss model under steady assumption is usually adopted. Although the calculation speed of the...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

In this way, more than 2,000 situations need to be calculated. If the calculation time for each situation is 3 minutes, it will take more than 100 hours. Obviously, this cannot meet the needs of real-time forecasting and early warning.

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