Method for predicting theoretical line loss
A theoretical line loss and prediction method technology, applied in the direction of electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of large analysis guidance error and low level of refinement of line loss prediction, and achieve the effect of improving effectiveness
Inactive Publication Date: 2011-07-20
ELECTRIC POWER RES INST OF STATE GRID ZHEJIANG ELECTRIC POWER COMAPNY +1
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At present, theoretical line loss calculation and analysis guide power grid loss reduction and energy saving and power grid planning often use current data, the error of analysis guidance is large, and the degree of refinement of line loss prediction is low
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[0012] The processing method of the present invention will be described below by predicting the next year's theoretical line loss rate by quarter and time period as an example, as figure 1 Shown:
[0013] 1. The annual line loss rate is expressed by the quarterly line loss rate as
[0014] 2. Calculate the theoretical line loss rate P of typical representative days of each quarter in the past 5 years (more years can be selected) Lyi (y is the 1st, 2nd, ... 5th year, i is the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th quarter);
[0015] 3. Calculate the proportion of power supply in each quarter to the annual electricity in the past 5 years (more years can be selected) k yi = Power supply in the i quarter of the yth year / the annual power supply in the yth year (y is the 1st, 2nd, ... 5th year);
[0016] 4. Observe P Lyi and k yi Whether there is a trend in the same direction, if so, go to step 5, otherwise re-select the time period;
[0017] 5. Choose the moving average method for forecasting,...
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The invention discloses a method for predicting theoretical line loss of a regional power network. At present, in the calculation and the analysis on the theoretical line loss for guiding the loss reduction and energy saving and the planning of the power network, frequently, the current data is used, so that the analysis and the guidance cause big error, and the fineness of the line loss prediction is low. The technical scheme of the invention is characterized by comprising the following steps of: decomposing a year theoretical line loss rate into a plurality of typical period theoretical line loss rates according to the typical periods, and assigning corresponding weighting coefficients to each typical period; calculating the predicted values of the weighting coefficients and the theoretical line loss rates of each typical period over the year through a trend extrapolation method according to the data over the years; and finally, collecting the predicted values of each typical period over the years according to the decomposing characteristics to obtain the theoretical line loss rate of a target year. The method can accurately predict the theoretical line loss value of required year, and improves the effectiveness of the analysis and the guidance for the loss reduction and energy saving and the planning of the power network.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of prediction of regional power grid line loss rate, in particular to a theoretical line loss prediction method of regional power grid. Background technique [0002] The actual line loss electricity is usually obtained by subtracting the total electricity measured by the electric energy meter from the total electricity sold, and its result is affected by the accuracy of the meter, meter reading time and statistical accuracy. At present, most of the regional power grid line loss rate prediction methods are aimed at the actual line loss, using the line loss binomial combined with the power growth coefficient to make monthly forecasts or using expert discussions to make annual forecasts. The size of the technical line loss in the loss. Technical line loss, also known as theoretical line loss, is the general term for the power loss of each component of the power grid. It is determined by the size of the transmission load...
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Inventor 潘星黄晓明楼伯良许晓芳陆承宇李鹏
Owner ELECTRIC POWER RES INST OF STATE GRID ZHEJIANG ELECTRIC POWER COMAPNY