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Method for forecasting photovoltaic power generation quantity

A technology for power generation and photovoltaic power stations, which is applied in the direction of electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc.

Inactive Publication Date: 2011-08-10
云南电力试验研究院(集团)有限公司
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Problems solved by technology

In the currently reported photovoltaic power generation prediction methods, there is no related research on reprocessing conventional meteorological data to fit the total radiation as the input of meteorological prediction, and the total radiation has a strong positive correlation with the power generation of photovoltaic power plants , can effectively improve the accuracy of photovoltaic power generation prediction

Method used

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  • Method for forecasting photovoltaic power generation quantity
  • Method for forecasting photovoltaic power generation quantity
  • Method for forecasting photovoltaic power generation quantity

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Embodiment Construction

[0036] Such as figure 1 As shown, the season, temperature, total radiation, weather type, rainfall, and humidity are normalized and calculated as the input of the BP neural network; the weight of the hidden layer of the BP neural network will be adjusted during the prediction calculation. Thus, the prediction result of photovoltaic power generation is generated; when the prediction result meets the accuracy requirement or the number of iterations exceeds 20,000 times, the prediction of photovoltaic power generation is completed.

[0037] Such as figure 2 As shown in , prepare the raw data required for forecasting photovoltaic power generation, and process the raw data to obtain the input data of photovoltaic power generation forecast, and transfer it to the forecast model of photovoltaic power generation, and obtain the required 4 hours after calculation Or 12-hour photovoltaic power generation forecast value.

[0038] Such as image 3 As shown, the way the neural network...

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Abstract

The invention provides a method for forecasting a photovoltaic power generation quantity. The method comprises the following steps of: screening and classifying historic power generation quantity data of a photovoltaic power station, excavating the historical data of the photovoltaic power station and reprocessing weather data to obtain a total radiation quantity of the photovoltaic power station; and normalizing the type of the weather, the temperature, the rainfall, the humidity, the season and the total radiation quantity as an input of a forecasting model and calculating through a nerve network so as to forecast the power generation quantity of the photovoltaic power station within 12 hours or 4 hours.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of new energy applications and relates to a method for predicting photovoltaic power generation. Background technique [0002] Photovoltaic power generation is volatile and intermittent, and the grid-connected operation of large-scale photovoltaic power plants will affect the safe, stable and economical operation of the power system. Forecasting the output power of photovoltaic power plants helps the grid dispatching department to coordinate the coordination of conventional power and photovoltaic power generation, adjust the dispatching plan in a timely manner, and reasonably arrange the operation mode of the grid. On the one hand, it can effectively reduce the disadvantages of photovoltaic access to the grid. Influence, improve the safety and stability of power system operation, on the other hand, reduce the spinning reserve capacity and operating cost of the power system, so as to make full use of solar energy resou...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 严玉廷苏适王增新冯勇陈霍兴
Owner 云南电力试验研究院(集团)有限公司
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