Regional power prediction method for photovoltaic power station group

Abstract

The invention provides a regional power prediction method for a photovoltaic power station group. The method comprises the following steps of: computing power prediction accuracy indexes of regional photovoltaic power stations and coefficients of correlation between the actual output power of each photovoltaic power station in an area and the actual total output power of the area; selecting a representative photovoltaic power station, and computing weight coefficients of the representative photovoltaic power station; and computing a generation power prediction value of a regional photovoltaic power station group. A power network dispatching department can realize regional prediction of photovoltaic generated power on the basis that parts of the photovoltaic power stations accomplish photovoltaic generated power prediction functions, so a generation plan of the following day is made according to a regional prediction result, a power network dispatching mode is optimized in a regional range, the quality of electric energy is ensured, the spare capacity of a system is reduced, the operating cost of a power system is reduced, and smooth implementation of a national new energy strategy is facilitated.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation and distribution, in particular to a method for predicting regional power of photovoltaic power station groups. Background technique [0002] Solar energy resources have the characteristics of intermittency, periodicity and volatility. The short-term prediction of the power generation of regional photovoltaic power plants will help the power dispatching department to adjust the dispatch plan in advance according to the change of photovoltaic power generation, ensure the quality of power, reduce the reserve capacity of the system, and reduce the operating cost of the power system. This is to reduce the impact of photovoltaic power generation. An effective way to cause adverse effects on the grid and increase the proportion of photovoltaic installed capacity in the grid. [0003] Theoretically speaking, the total power of regional photovoltaic power generation refers to the su...

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Problems solved by technology

In fact, this method is not feasible. First, many photovoltaic power plants have not installed photovoltaic power generation forecasting systems; second, the accuracy of the forecast results of various photovoltaic power plants varies, and direct addition may amplify the error, resulting in unreliable results.

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