Method for quantifying computed result non-determinacy interval of water supply pipe network model

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of non-determinacy analysis of a water supply pipe network model, in particular to a method for quantifying the computed result non-determinacy interval of a water supply pipe network model. The method comprises the following steps of: acquiring the pressure of each node and the pipe section flow in a water supply region; analyzing a potential data non-determinacy interval according to a system error and an accidental error; establishing a pipe network micro-model system communicated with a pipe network system; resolving a linear model; determining the non-determinacy interval of a simulated result by adopting random sampling simulation; quantifying the non-determinacy interval of the simulated result; and counting the probability density distribution of a result interval. The method has the beneficial effects that: resolving pipe network model linearization and linearized solution method for model by analyzing the non-determinacy intervals of measured data and model parameters, the non-determinacy interval of the simulated result is determined by adopting random sampling simulation, and a novel thought is provided for model accuracy estimation.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of uncertainty analysis of a microscopic model of a water supply pipe network system, in particular to a quantification method for the uncertainty interval of a calculation result of a water supply pipe network model. Background technique [0002] With the improvement of industrial production capacity, the scale of urban water supply system is constantly expanding, and the complexity of water supply network is also increasing. [0003] Computer simulation of water supply network system is an important basis for network planning, design and operation. A large number of mathematical models in engineering use deterministic methods to describe system behavior. Real-life problems are accompanied by uncertainty in some way. The uncertainty in the pipeline network modeling process may come from the process of parameter measurement and parameter estimation. The contradiction between mathematical certainty and natural uncert...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The reason why uncertainty analysis is important is that the model describing the characteristics of the pipe network system cannot be unique. The results of uncertain hydraulic simulation are the probability distribution of node water pressure and pipe section flow, which can be determined by random test method or joint probability distribution method to solve the required results, but the calculation is very heavy, and for complex pipe networks, the calculation time is often unacceptable

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