Method for predicating short-period output power of photovoltaic power generation based on BP (Back Propagation) neural network

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicating the short-period output power of photovoltaic power generation based on a BP (Back Propagation) neural network. According to the method, the BP neural network is adopted for predicating the output power of a photovoltaic power generation system, and the influence of weather factors on the output power of the photovoltaic power generation system is subjected to statistical analysis. The method comprises the following steps of firstly mapping weather types as day types used as the input data of the BP neural network, and utilizing power generation power during each time period of a prediction day as output data; then determining the quantity of hidden layer nodes through formula calculation and repeated cut-and-try operations according to the quantity of input and output units; performing normalization treatment on the input data, performing reverse normalization treatment on the output data, and training the BP neural network by utilizing the treated operating data; and finally predicating the power generation power of the predication day by utilizing a trained model, thereby obtaining the predication result. The data processing method and a prediction model can be used for effectively predicating the short-period output power in photovoltaic power generation under multiple weather types.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a photovoltaic power generation system, in particular to a method for predicting short-term output of photovoltaic power generation. Background technique [0002] At present, environmental pressures such as global fossil energy resources are increasingly scarce and climate change is increasing. As a clean, safe and renewable green energy, solar energy has unique advantages in alleviating the world's energy supply shortage, optimizing energy structure, and protecting the environment. Solar power generation does not need to consume conventional energy. It is a green and pollution-free clean energy, which is valued by countries all over the world. As the main form of solar power generation utilization, photovoltaic power generation has developed rapidly in recent years. Large-scale photovoltaic grid-connected power generation is an effective way to make full use of solar energy, and it is also the mainstream trend of photovoltai...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Methods based on mathematical statistics prediction include time series method, etc. The output data of photovoltaic power plants are regarded as a random time series that changes periodically with time, which has the advantages of fast prediction speed, simple prediction process, and good extrapolation, but this method does not Consider environmental factors affecting photovoltaic power generation

Images