Wind power plant short-term wind speed forecasting method based on weather patterns

A technology for wind speed forecasting and wind farms, which is used in electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc. It can solve the problems of not taking into account the changing laws of wind speed time series, and being unsuitable for establishing regression forecasting models, so as to reduce forecasting errors. Effect

Active Publication Date: 2013-08-21
HARBIN INST OF TECH
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  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] The purpose of the present invention is to solve the problem that the existing wind speed prediction method does not take into account that the wind speed time series will show different changes under different weather conditions, and the clustering results given by fuzzy clustering are spherical, which is not suitable for establishing regression In view of the problems of forecasting models, a short-term wind speed forecasting method for wind farms based on weather models is proposed

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  • Wind power plant short-term wind speed forecasting method based on weather patterns
  • Wind power plant short-term wind speed forecasting method based on weather patterns
  • Wind power plant short-term wind speed forecasting method based on weather patterns

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specific Embodiment approach 1

[0018] Specific implementation mode one: combine figure 1 Describe this embodiment, the short-term wind speed prediction method of wind farm based on weather model described in this embodiment is carried out in the following steps:

[0019] Step 1. Perform feature expression for each wind speed sample point;

[0020] Step 2, using the GPCA algorithm to divide the feature space into subspaces, and project each sample point into the corresponding subspace;

[0021] Step 3, in each subspace, establish a support vector machine prediction model for the sample points in the subspace;

[0022] Step 4: According to the membership degree of each subspace of the sample point at the current moment, the integrated prediction is performed, and the prediction result is given.

[0023] The present invention includes the following advantages:

[0024] 1. For the first time, a model-based wind speed prediction method is proposed, that is, considering that the wind speed time series will sho...

specific Embodiment approach 2

[0027] Specific implementation mode two: this implementation mode is a further description of specific implementation mode one, and the specific process of step one is:

[0028] One: According to the difference between the current time point and the previous k historical wind speed values, and the k wind speed values, the characteristic expression of the current sample point is formed, and the construction form is as follows:

[0029] x t =[w(t),w(t-1),…,w(t-k+1),△w(t),△w(t-1),…,△w(t-k+2) ]; where x t Represents the eigenvector at time t, w(t) represents the wind speed value at time t, and △w(t) represents the difference item of wind speed, that is, △w(t)=w(t)-w(t-1); It can be seen from the formula that x t The dimension is 2k-1 dimension, remember d 1 =2k-1;

[0030] Two: After determining the sample composition, it is necessary to perform a normalization operation on each physical component, and the normalization adopts the maximum and minimum normalization:

[0031] ...

specific Embodiment approach 3

[0044] Specific implementation mode three: this implementation mode is a further description of specific implementation mode one, and the specific process of step two is:

[0045] 1. Assuming that there are n subspaces in the original space, calculate the polynomial expression of the characteristic matrix T, namely

[0046] V n = [ v n ( tx 1 ) , v n ( tx 2 ) , · · · v n ( tx N ) ] ∈ R m n × N ;

[0...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a wind power plant short-term wind speed forecasting method based on weather patterns. The wind power plant short-term wind speed forecasting method based on the weather patterns mainly solves the problems that the situation that different changing rules of a wind speed time sequence are presented under different weather conditions is not taken into account by the prior wind speed forecasting method, and a regression forecasting model is not appropriate to build because a clustering result given by a fuzzy cluster is spherical. The wind power plant short-term wind speed forecasting method based on the weather patterns comprises the following steps that feature expression is conducted on each wind speed sample point; second, subspace cutting is conducted on a feature space using a GPCA algorithm, and each sample point is projected in a corresponding subspace; third, a support vector machine forecasting model is built for sample points in the subspaces; fourth, integrated forecasting is conducted according to the membership degrees of a current sample point for each subspace and a forecasting result is given. The wind power plant short-term wind speed forecasting method based on the weather patterns can be applied to the field of large-scale wind power resource application.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a wind speed prediction method of a wind farm, in particular to a short-term wind speed prediction method of a wind farm based on a weather model. Background technique [0002] In the face of common human problems such as the depletion of fossil energy and environmental pollution, the safe and efficient development and utilization of large-scale wind energy and other new energy sources is an inevitable choice and a major strategic measure for my country to achieve sustainable development. With the maturity of wind power generation technology, the grid connection of large-scale wind power has become one of the most critical issues that need to be solved urgently. For large-scale wind power grid connection, the first and most important link is to carry out accurate wind power prediction in order to achieve safe and efficient use of energy. [0003] Although my country is rich in wind resources, the wind has the characteristics o...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 苏鹏宇于达仁胡清华万杰刘金福
Owner HARBIN INST OF TECH
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