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Method for intelligently predicting power transmission line forest fires in large scale

A power transmission line and intelligent prediction technology, applied in the direction of electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of regional differences and shortages during high-risk wildfires, achieve novel ideas, ensure safe operation, and clear processes Effect

Inactive Publication Date: 2014-07-30
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +2
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
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  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a large-scale intelligent method for predicting mountain fires on transmission lines in view of the obvious regional differences in the high-incidence period of mountain fires in various provinces and the lack of unified scientific forecasting. The occurrence of wildfires on transmission lines in various provinces in the next seven days

Method used

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Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0024] (1) Determine the month with high incidence of wildfires in the forecasted provinces.

[0025] (1.1), collect and predict the historical daily fire points and monthly fire points of satellite monitoring transmission lines in provinces in the last ten years. Using conventional methods, based on the collected data, the monthly average number of satellite-monitored transmission line fires in the forecasted provinces from January to December is calculated. Then, using the P-Ⅲ frequency calculation method, taking the monthly fire points of the satellite-monitored transmission lines in the last ten years in the predicted province as samples, and taking the historical monthly fire points of the satellite-monitored transmission lines in the predicted provinces in the last ten years corresponding to the 60% frequency as the forecast The monthly threshold for the number of transmission line fires during the high-incidence period of wildfires in the province;

[0026] (1.2), comp...

Embodiment 2

[0038] (1) Determine the month with high incidence of wildfires in the forecasted provinces.

[0039] Step (1.1) is with embodiment 1;

[0040] (1.2), compare step (1.1) with the monthly threshold value of the number of transmission line fire points in the predicted province during the high-incidence period of wildfires and the monthly average satellite monitoring transmission line fire points in the forecast province from January to December in step (1.1), and predict the province The monthly average number of satellite-monitored transmission line fires in the month is less than the monthly threshold of transmission line fires in the province during the high-incidence period of wildfires, and a preliminary forecast conclusion is made that this month is not the month with high-incidence of transmission lines in the province to be predicted;

[0041] Step (2) is with embodiment 1;

[0042] (3) Judging the prediction conditions.

[0043] (3.1), judging whether to meet the high...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for intelligently predicting power transmission line forest fires in a large scale. The method comprises the following steps of (1) determining high-occurrence months of forest fires in a prediction province; (2) determining a specific humidity threshold value; (3) judging prediction conditions; (4) giving a prediction conclusion; (5) drawing susceptible areas of forest fires; (6) drawing a forest fire early-warning map, and giving forest fire warnings. According to the method, (1) a method for intelligently dividing the high-occurrence seasons of forest fires in each province is provided, and large-area power transmission line forest fire breakout conditions in each province of China within the next 7 days can be automatically and rapidly predicted; (2) the method is novel in thinking, clear in flow and high in accuracy; (3) time for the advanced deployment of power transmission line forest fire prevention measures is gained, technical guidance is provided for key power grid forest fire prevention and control areas, loss is reduced, accidents are avoided, and the safety running of large power grids comprising ultrahigh-voltage lines can be ensured.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of electrical engineering, and in particular relates to a method for intelligently predicting mountain fires on power transmission lines in a large range. Background technique [0002] Affected by the "returning farmland to forest" policy and the popularization and application of natural gas, in recent years, the vegetation coverage in southern my country has increased, and the incidence of wildfires has also shown a continuous growth trend. Especially in winter and spring, when the weather is sunny and rainy for a long time, the moisture content of the vegetation is low, the air is dry, and large-scale wildfires are prone to eruption, and the transmission lines of the power grid are spread all over the mountains, affected by the high heat and smoke of nearby wildfires. It is very easy to cause a trip flashover accident, and it is difficult to automatically close the switch, resulting in a long-term power ou...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 陆佳政杨莉张红先李波方针
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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