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Sun direct radiation value prediction method and system

A technology of direct solar radiation and total solar radiation, which is applied in the field of prediction and can solve problems such as the difficulty of predicting the value of direct solar radiation

Active Publication Date: 2014-07-30
内蒙古电力勘测设计院有限责任公司
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Problems solved by technology

Because the direct solar radiation value is affected by many meteorological factors, especially the influence of clouds, it is very difficult to accurately predict the direct solar radiation value

Method used

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  • Sun direct radiation value prediction method and system
  • Sun direct radiation value prediction method and system

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Embodiment Construction

[0025] The following descriptions are preferred implementation examples of the present invention, which do not limit the protection scope of the present invention.

[0026] Such as figure 1 As shown, the direct solar radiation value prediction system proposed by the present invention includes numerical weather forecasting equipment 1 , medium-term forecasting equipment 2 and short-term and ultra-short-term forecasting equipment 3 .

[0027]Numerical weather forecasting equipment uses mesoscale forecasting models to predict meteorological information and generate mesoscale forecast data. The mesoscale is a spatial resolution of 3km×3km or other scales, and the mesoscale prediction model is WRF or MM5, etc. The numerical weather forecasting equipment can provide a medium-term forecast for the next 7 days, with a time resolution of 3 hours (hours), and a forecast every 24 hours. The forecast includes total solar radiation, air pressure, temperature, relative humidity, cloud cove...

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Abstract

The invention brings forward a sun direct radiation value prediction method and system, and belongs to the technical field of prediction. The method comprises: A, predicting meteorology information by use of an intermediate scale prediction model, and generating intermediate scale prediction data; B, classifying the intermediate scale prediction data into prediction data using a sunny model and prediction data using a cloudy model; C, for the prediction data applying the sunny model, directly utilizing the theoretical calculation value of the sunny model, and performing mid-term prediction on a sun direct radiation value; and D, for the prediction data applying the cloudy model, performing model conversion on a sun total radiation value, and outputting a sun direct radiation value.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of prediction, in particular to a method and system for predicting solar direct radiation value. Background technique [0002] Solar radiation is fluctuating and intermittent, and the grid-connected operation of large-scale photothermal power plants or concentrated photovoltaic power plants may have an impact on the safe, stable and economical operation of the power system. Predicting the output power of solar thermal or concentrating photovoltaic power plants will help the power system dispatching department to coordinate and coordinate conventional energy and solar thermal power generation, adjust the scheduling plan in time, and rationally arrange the operation mode of the power grid. On the one hand, it can effectively reduce solar thermal power generation. The impact of access to the grid improves the safety and stability of grid operation, and on the other hand reduces the spinning reserve and ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F17/30
CPCY02A30/00Y04S10/50
Inventor 彭怀午杨晓峰
Owner 内蒙古电力勘测设计院有限责任公司
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