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Method for predicting rotating standby interval with wind power acceptance considered based on probability interval prediction

A probability interval and spinning reserve technology, applied in the field of electrical information, can solve problems such as the inability to obtain upper and lower limits of output

Inactive Publication Date: 2014-08-20
STATE GRID GANSU ELECTRIC POWER CORP +1
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Point forecasting can only give definite values, but cannot obtain the upper and lower limits of output that meet a certain confidence level in the future

Method used

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  • Method for predicting rotating standby interval with wind power acceptance considered based on probability interval prediction
  • Method for predicting rotating standby interval with wind power acceptance considered based on probability interval prediction
  • Method for predicting rotating standby interval with wind power acceptance considered based on probability interval prediction

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Embodiment

[0069] like figure 1 As shown, the probability interval prediction method is used for load interval prediction ( figure 1 Box 1-4) and wind power output interval forecast ( figure 1 in boxes 5-9). Among them, the load interval prediction includes four steps: forecasting the system load by the historical load value, analyzing the load forecast error, obtaining the distribution function of the load forecast error, and obtaining the load forecast interval, respectively. figure 1 Boxes 1, 2, 3, and 4 in the box; wind power output interval prediction includes five steps: wind speed prediction, wind power generator output prediction, wind power output prediction error analysis, wind power output prediction error distribution function, and wind power output prediction interval. respectively figure 1 Boxes 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 in . Then, based on the load forecast interval and wind power output forecast interval obtained from the above two branches, the extreme scenario analysis is carri...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting a rotating standby interval with wind power acceptance considered based on probability interval prediction. The method for predicting the rotating standby interval with the wind power acceptance considered is characterized in that according to the uncertainty of loads and wind power force output, probability interval prediction is used for replacing point prediction, and then a probability prediction theory and prediction error probability distribution are used for predicting a load variation interval and a wind power force output variation interval; then according to a limitation scene theory, the load prediction interval and the wind power force output variation interval are used for obtaining the rotating standby interval with a large-scale wind power system, so that a positive standby value and a negative standby value needed by the system under a limitation condition are given out, and a reasonable data range is provided for power coordinated optimization dispatching with the wind power acceptance considered.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a method for forecasting rotating reserve intervals based on probability interval forecasting that takes into account wind power acceptance. Specifically, the present invention is based on probability interval forecasting and limit scenario theory, and calculates and calculates from load interval forecasting and wind power output interval forecasting. The invention relates to a system spinning reserve interval prediction method adopted by wind power, which belongs to the field of electrical information. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the increasingly prominent energy and environmental issues and the deepening of power market reforms, renewable energy power generation has developed rapidly around the world. With the advantages of good social and environmental impact, wind power has the fastest development. According to the occupation of wind energy resources in our country, wind power generation has...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): H02J3/00G06F19/00
Inventor 刘天琪李茜王福军马静吴星关铁英蔺海明凡航
Owner STATE GRID GANSU ELECTRIC POWER CORP
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