Wind power prediction method and system

Abstract

Provided is a wind power prediction method and system. The method includes the steps of forecasting whether the possibility of extreme weather exists or not according to received weather data; if so, recording effect data related to the extreme weather; determining a correction factor of a wind field to be predicted according to all previous historical operating data corresponding to extreme weather of the wind field to be predicted; determining an impact factor of the extreme weather on wind generator generation power according to the effect data and the correction factor; determining affect parameters of wind generator generation related to the extreme weather according to the impact factor; adjusting the wind generator generation power predicted through an existing wind power prediction system of the wind field to be predicted according to the correction factor and the affect parameters of wind generator generation, and setting the adjusted power as the generation power of wind generators of the wind field to be predicted. By means of the wind power prediction method and system, the accuracy of wind power prediction under the condition of extreme weather is improved and an error between the prediction power and the actual power is greatly reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of wind power prediction, in particular to a method and system for wind power prediction. Background technique [0002] Wind energy is a clean and renewable energy. Due to its rich resources, high conversion efficiency, good industrialization foundation, obvious economic advantages, and small environmental impact, it has the conditions for large-scale development. As far as the current development situation is concerned, the development and utilization of wind energy has become the most important development direction of renewable energy in China. [0003] However, due to the characteristics of strong intermittent, high randomness, and weak dispatchability of wind power and other renewable energy power generation, large-scale access will have a more obvious impact on power grid operation. At present, the large-capacity wind farms being developed in my country usually show significant regional concentration, and the i...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] At present, there is no special processing for power prediction in extreme weather, so the data that the wind turbine does not generate electricity or the power generation is seriously low in extreme weather is regarded as abnormal data and is eliminated when establishing the mathematical model of wind turbine power generation. Extreme weather Occasionally, experienced forecasters manually input prediction data to predict the power generation of wind turbines in extreme weather, but this method cannot be accurately quantified, resulting in a large difference between the predicted power and the actual power

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