Multi-stage task spacecraft reliability improving method based on risks

A spacecraft and reliability technology, applied in the fields of instruments, special data processing applications, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve the problem of difficulty in effectively guiding design optimization and reliability design improvement, risk characterization, analysis and quantification are not precise enough, It is difficult to effectively support engineering risk decision-making and other problems

Active Publication Date: 2015-01-28
CHINA ACAD OF LAUNCH VEHICLE TECH
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] Foreign countries have carried out research and application of risk quantitative evaluation technology for complex spacecraft with multi-stage missions such as manned lunar exploration spacecraft and space shuttle, and have achieved remarkable results. However, the description, analysis and quantification of risk characteristics in different mission stages of the mission process are not yet

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  • Multi-stage task spacecraft reliability improving method based on risks
  • Multi-stage task spacecraft reliability improving method based on risks
  • Multi-stage task spacecraft reliability improving method based on risks

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[0034] Combine below Figure 1-Figure 5 , take the three-stage task spacecraft as an example to further describe the present invention in detail:

[0035] Three-stage mission The spacecraft mission process includes three mission stages: launch, on-orbit operation, and autonomous return. The mission success criteria are as follows: all three mission stages are successful, and the entire mission is successful; if the mission fails in the "carrying launch" stage, the entire mission fails; if the mission fails in the "on-orbit operation" stage, the entire mission is downgraded; The entire mission had limited success.

[0036] Apply the risk-based multi-stage task spacecraft reliability improvement method of the present invention, such as figure 1 As shown, it specifically includes the following steps:

[0037] Step (1), task phase division

[0038] Critical mission stage: There are risk factors affecting the success of the mission in the carrying launch, on-orbit operation, an...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a multi-stage task spacecraft reliability improving method based on risks. The multi-stage task spacecraft reliability improving method based on the risks comprises the following steps of (1) determining the conversion relation of a key task stage and a task result state and between the task result states, (2) the key task stage risk characteristic is analyzed, a fault tree, a dynamic fault tree and a Bayes network method are used, a risk characteristic model is built, and relative data are collected to determine the key task failure occurring possibility and main risk factors, and (3) a spacecraft task process event tree model is built, the different task result state possibility is obtained by solving the model, the main risk factors are combined, and reliability improving measures are made. The multi-stage task spacecraft reliability improving method can realize the multi-stage task spacecraft conventional invalidity, redundancy backup invalidity and relative invalidity modeling analysis, the task result state possibility and the main risk factors are obtained, and the multi-stage task spacecraft reliability improving method based on the risks can provide technical support for the spacecraft reliability improving.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for improving the reliability of a risk-based multi-stage mission spacecraft, in particular to a method for improving the reliability design of a spacecraft with complex structures, numerous mission stages and multiple risk characteristics. Background technique [0002] The complexity of the structure and function of the spacecraft and the multi-stage nature of the mission process lead to many risk factors affecting the success of the mission during the flight test of the spacecraft. design improvements to enhance the mission reliability of the vehicle. [0003] Foreign countries have carried out research and application of risk quantitative evaluation technology for complex spacecraft with multi-stage missions such as manned lunar exploration spacecraft and space shuttle, and have achieved remarkable results. However, the description, analysis and quantification of risk characteristics in different mission stages of t...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
Inventor 吴蕾蕾李孝鹏陈洪波杨勇方磊曹熙炜李福秋任立明敖楠刘春雷李永远周晓丽彭小波王福忠朱永贵
Owner CHINA ACAD OF LAUNCH VEHICLE TECH
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