Multi-stage task spacecraft reliability improving method based on risks

Abstract

The invention relates to a multi-stage task spacecraft reliability improving method based on risks. The multi-stage task spacecraft reliability improving method based on the risks comprises the following steps of (1) determining the conversion relation of a key task stage and a task result state and between the task result states, (2) the key task stage risk characteristic is analyzed, a fault tree, a dynamic fault tree and a Bayes network method are used, a risk characteristic model is built, and relative data are collected to determine the key task failure occurring possibility and main risk factors, and (3) a spacecraft task process event tree model is built, the different task result state possibility is obtained by solving the model, the main risk factors are combined, and reliability improving measures are made. The multi-stage task spacecraft reliability improving method can realize the multi-stage task spacecraft conventional invalidity, redundancy backup invalidity and relative invalidity modeling analysis, the task result state possibility and the main risk factors are obtained, and the multi-stage task spacecraft reliability improving method based on the risks can provide technical support for the spacecraft reliability improving.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for improving the reliability of a risk-based multi-stage mission spacecraft, in particular to a method for improving the reliability design of a spacecraft with complex structures, numerous mission stages and multiple risk characteristics. Background technique [0002] The complexity of the structure and function of the spacecraft and the multi-stage nature of the mission process lead to many risk factors affecting the success of the mission during the flight test of the spacecraft. design improvements to enhance the mission reliability of the vehicle. [0003] Foreign countries have carried out research and application of risk quantitative evaluation technology for complex spacecraft with multi-stage missions such as manned lunar exploration spacecraft and space shuttle, and have achieved remarkable results. However, the description, analysis and quantification of risk characteristics in different mission stages of t...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] Foreign countries have carried out research and application of risk quantitative evaluation technology for complex spacecraft with multi-stage missions such as manned lunar exploration spacecraft and space shuttle, and have achieved remarkable results. However, the description, analysis and quantification of risk characteristics in different mission stages of the mission process are not yet refined enough.

The traditional domestic assessment of spacecraft mission risk is mainly based on qualitative identification and semi-quantitative evaluation, lack of effective quantitative assessment methods, it is difficult to effectively support engineering risk decision-making, and it is difficult to effectively guide the optimization of design schemes and the improvement of reliability design

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