Method of predicting and accessing level of wildfire-caused trip risk in power transmission lines

Abstract

The invention provides a method of predicting and accessing level of a wildfire-caused trip risk in power transmission lines. Based on the power transmission line corridor fire risk level as an indicator and factors such as daily precipitation, temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, slope, sloping direction, road network density, population density, conventional solar terms and vegetation water content, influence factors to the wildfire occurrence risk are quantitatively assessed so as to establish a wildfire risk assessment model. During occurrence of a wildfire, based on the line trip risk level as an indicator and flame height bridge ratio, vegetation variety and vegetation distribution, the influence factors to the power transmission line trip risk level is quantitatively assessed in the case of the wildfire so as to establish a line trip assessment model. The method is applied to predicting and accessing the level of the wildfire-caused trip risk in the power transmission lines by integrating the two models. The method according to the technical scheme has the advantages that the trip risk in the power transmission lines can be subjectively predicted and assessed on the basis of real-time data, targeted preventive measures are taken in advance, wildfire-caused trip accidents of the power transmission lines are maximally decreased, and the method is significant to the improvement of safety and running reliability of the power transmission lines.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of electrical engineering, in particular to a method for predicting and evaluating the risk level of power transmission lines tripping due to wildfires. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of my country's economy, the demand for electricity continues to grow, which has promoted a large amount of investment and construction of electric power resources. The tense situation in the power corridor is becoming increasingly severe, and many high-voltage long-distance transmission lines are forced to be built in areas prone to wildfires with lush vegetation, which poses a serious threat to the safety of external insulation and transmission equipment. Especially in recent years, abnormal dry weather, human activities, etc. caused by mountain fires have gradually increased the number of tripping and blackout accidents on transmission lines; from 2007 to 2010, there were 51 mountain fire accidents ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] For example, patent CN103473611A proposed a five-factor-based method for forecasting mountain fire levels on transmission lines, patent CN102592390A proposed a method for predicting mountain fires on transmission lines, and patent CN103955618A proposed a method for large-scale intelligent prediction of mountain fires on transmission lines. Although the method can predict the occurrence of mountain fires in transmission line corridors, there are few factors considered, and there is no comprehensive evaluation of whether the line trips, and it cannot reflect the impact and threat of mountain fires on transmission lines.

Although the patent CN103472326A proposes a method for evaluating the probability of transmission line failure caused by wildfires, it does not evaluate whether wildfires occur in the corridors of transmission lines, and the occurrence of wildfires is a prerequisite for line tripping, so this method cannot truly reflect the failure of transmission lines. actual risk situation

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