Unlock instant, AI-driven research and patent intelligence for your innovation.

Wind power time series combined prediction method

A technology of wind power forecasting and time series, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of low forecasting accuracy, improve forecasting accuracy, reduce abandoned wind power, and solve the effect of poor wind power forecasting

Active Publication Date: 2015-05-27
HOHAI UNIV +3
View PDF4 Cites 3 Cited by
  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the prediction accuracy of the existing wind power prediction methods is still not high. The error of the international advanced wind power prediction system is about 15%, which cannot meet the needs of the project.

Method used

the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
View more

Image

Smart Image Click on the blue labels to locate them in the text.
Viewing Examples
Smart Image
  • Wind power time series combined prediction method
  • Wind power time series combined prediction method
  • Wind power time series combined prediction method

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment Construction

[0026] The technical solutions of the present invention will be further described below through specific embodiments in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0027] figure 1 It is a flowchart of the present invention. A kind of wind power time series combined prediction method provided by the present invention is characterized in that: comprise the following steps:

[0028] S1: Collect the wind power generation data of the wind farm to be predicted on a daily basis, that is, the historical wind power data, and generate a corresponding time series quantity X from the collected historical wind power data as a training sample set;

[0029] S2: Using the training sample set X, taking the time series forecasting model as the core model, and adopting the direct multi-step forecasting method, calculate and generate the wind power forecasting sequence X DMS ;

[0030] S3: Using the training sample set X, taking the time series forecasting model as the core model, and adopti...

the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
Login to View More

PUM

No PUM Login to View More

Abstract

The invention discloses a wind power time series combined prediction method. The method is based on a direct multi-step prediction method and a rolling multi-step prediction method for performing combined prediction on day-ahead wind power of a wind power plant. By adopting the wind power time series combined prediction method disclosed by the invention, day-ahead prediction precision of the wind power prediction method can be effectively improved, the problem of poor wind power prediction effect in an existing engineering wind power short-term prediction technology is solved, purchase cost for huge spare power generation capacity can be reduced for a power grid enterprise and the operation benefits of the power grid enterprise are upgraded; meanwhile, abandoned wind power can be effectively reduced, wind power effective grid-connected capacity can be upgraded, huge profits are brought to a power generation enterprise and energy conservation and emission reduction are promoted.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of wind power forecasting in the process of new energy power generation, in particular to a combined forecasting method of wind power time series. Background technique [0002] In the context of the global energy crisis and environmental crisis, wind power generation will be one of the most competitive renewable energy sources in the next few decades. The wind energy reserves are huge, and using wind energy to generate electricity can not only reduce environmental pollution, but also reduce the cost of the power system. fuel costs, bringing considerable economic benefits. [0003] By the end of 2010, the total installed capacity of wind power in my country surpassed that of the United States, ranking first in the world; as of December 2014, the installed capacity of grid-connected wind power in Jiangsu Power Grid had reached 2.97 million kilowatts, accounting for about 3.7% of the total installed capacity of...

Claims

the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
Login to View More

Application Information

Patent Timeline
no application Login to View More
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 陈星莺蒋宇姚建国余昆廖迎晨
Owner HOHAI UNIV