Various uncertain factors affected planning load prediction method

A technology of load forecasting and uncertainty, applied in the field of power load forecasting and power market

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-01-06
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +2
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Problems solved by technology

These methods are characterized by being able to deal with single uncertain information well, but in practical engineering applications, uncertain information often has multiples, and various un

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  • Various uncertain factors affected planning load prediction method
  • Various uncertain factors affected planning load prediction method
  • Various uncertain factors affected planning load prediction method

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Embodiment Construction

[0052] The present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with specific examples.

[0053] Taking the power supply area of ​​220kV Sinosteel Station in Huanghua City, Cangzhou as an example, the method proposed by the present invention is used to predict its load change in 2014. According to the project planning of this area, the planned access load in the power supply area of ​​Sinosteel Station is initially predicted: (1 ) Comprehensive port substation capacity (2×20MVA), expected load 25MW; (2) Shenhua substation capacity (2×40), expected load 52MW; (3) Binni substation capacity (2×40) , with an estimated required load of 70MW; (4) The North Substation in the New District is a project under construction, with a transformation capacity (2×63MVA), and an estimated required load of 60MW; (5) Sanhe Station is a planned user station, with a transformation capacity (2× 75MVA), with an estimated required load of 120MW; (6) Substation capacity of ferrochrome ...

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Abstract

The present invention relates to a various uncertain factors affected planning load prediction method. According to the method, changes in economic variable data are used to represent an effect of various influence factors of uncertainty on power load change; the uncertain factors are quantified by comparing effects of each factor; and quantitative influence factors are included in load prediction by blind number theory modeling. The load prediction method of the present invention comprises three steps of blind number model construction, interval gray number confidence determining, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model prediction. An effect of an uncertain factor is converted into and reflected by an interval gray number and confidence thereof by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, so that a quantized value of load prediction is obtained. According to the load prediction method provided by the present invention, a relatively small amount of information is lost in load prediction, and the result is more reasonable, thereby providing a basis for grid development planning and scheduling work.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of electric power market and electric load forecasting, in particular to a planning load forecasting method influenced by various uncertain factors. Background technique [0002] At present, in order to meet the needs of different types of loads, the development of the power grid, the rationality of planning, and the daily power dispatching all rely on load forecasting. Therefore, power load forecasting has developed into an important research field in engineering disciplines. , and gradually assumed an increasingly important role, however, how to achieve accurate prediction of power load changes has always been an important topic. [0003] Power load forecasting is to analyze the operation of the existing system, consider the characteristics of the existing system operation, under the guidance of the theory, use a certain system (mathematical model) to analyze the historical load data of the power system, and explore...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 李晓军侯双林王艳
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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