The invention discloses a rainstorm
risk probability forecasting method fusing multi-source mode and
artificial intelligence model rainfall forecasting, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining multi-source rainfall forecasting data which comprises a global numerical mode, a regional numerical mode and ancient
artificial intelligence model forecasting; objective correction is carried out on the multi-source rainfall forecast data through intelligent grid algorithms such as a
frequency matching method, a sorting mapping method and a neighborhood method; optimizing a Bayesian model average
algorithm to generate a gridding rainstorm probability forecast; and calculating a regional rainstorm
risk probability value based on the geographic boundary of the target region. According to the method, intelligent grid algorithms such as a
frequency matching method, sorting mapping and a neighborhood method are applied to fuse the advantages of multi-source rainfall forecasting, an improved Bayesian model average
algorithm is adopted to generate grid probability forecasting, and the regional rainstorm
risk probability is calculated based on geographic boundaries. The method is applied to a Shenzhen land-sea integrated meteorological disaster prevention
system, the rainstorm probability forecast deviation is reduced by 32% compared with a traditional
algorithm, and the disaster prevention decision accuracy is remarkably improved.