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Transformer repair risk decision-making method

A risk decision-making and transformer technology, applied in the field of transformer maintenance risk decision-making, can solve the problems of different power equipment maintenance decisions and the impact of decision-making results.

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-02-03
ELECTRIC POWER RES INST STATE GRID JIANGXI ELECTRIC POWER CO +1
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Problems solved by technology

Although the gray theory conforms to the characteristics of incomplete information in the decision-making process of power equipment, the premise of the above research is that the decision-maker is absolutely rational. However, in practice, the maintenance decision of power equipment is different from other investment decisions. Psychological factors and risk attitudes have a direct impact on decision-making outcomes

Method used

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  • Transformer repair risk decision-making method

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specific Embodiment approach

[0056] The specific embodiment of the present invention comprises the following calculation steps:

[0057] (1) Construct transformer maintenance decision index attribute set I={I 1 , I 2 , I 3 , I 4 , I 5 , I 6}, I 1 The technical level required for maintenance, that is, whether there is corresponding maintenance technology within the company, if not, whether external technology is needed, and the difficulty of external recruitment, etc.; I 2 Risks that may be brought by the maintenance plan, that is, risks such as misoperation and falling from high altitude during maintenance; I 3 The impact of the maintenance plan on the user load, that is, the impact on electricity, power load, power supply reliability, etc.; I 4 Is the threat to the security of the power grid due to faults, that is, the economic loss that may result in grid security incidents; I 5 It is the comprehensive maintenance cost of the maintenance plan, including maintenance cost, labor cost, production l...

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Abstract

Provided is a transformer repair risk decision-making method characterized by constructing an initial repair decision matrix by using a method combining fuzzy evaluation with accurate evaluation, forming a decision scheme stationing set according to the number of test times of a orthogonal table; computing the mahalanobis distance between each repair scheme and positive-negative ideal solution; setting a repair decision influence factor so as to construct a positive-negative prospect value matrix; and computing the comprehensive prospect value of each repair scheme and selecting an optimal scheme. The method uses a quantitative and qualitative combined way, prevents information loss caused by a fuzzy number precision process, introduces a gray cumulative prospect theory and is improved in validity.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a transformer maintenance risk decision-making method, which belongs to the technical field of power equipment maintenance. Background technique [0002] The transformer is an important part of the power system, and its operating status directly affects the operation safety of the entire power system. With the development of ultra-high voltage transmission technology, the capacity of the power grid continues to increase. Once the transformer fails, it may cause a chain reaction and cause huge disasters. Therefore, the power grid company implements advanced and scientific condition-based maintenance decisions to prevent cascading failures of transformers. Condition-based maintenance decision-making is based on the operating status of power equipment, combined with monitoring data and evaluation records, to form a limited set of alternative maintenance solutions, and then make a decision on a technically and economically optimal...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
Inventor 曾伟孙旻范瑞祥曹蓓
Owner ELECTRIC POWER RES INST STATE GRID JIANGXI ELECTRIC POWER CO
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