Wind power unit commitment contained modeling method considering predication error timing sequence distribution

Abstract

The invention discloses a wind power unit commitment contained modeling method considering predication error timing sequence distribution. A predication error segmentation fitting method under a timing sequence based on error characteristic analysis is proposed; fitting is performed based on t location-scale distribution to reduce a heavy-tail effect and improve the fitting precision, and the fitting method can be matched with a UC decision in timing sequence; next, a dual-quantile type UC decision model capable of taking conventional cost, extra standby cost and risk cost into considerations is established; the selection of confidence levels can be balanced through the restrictive relations among different costs; the standby classification can be guided by the division of the different confidence levels; the error timing sequence segmentation distribution is adapted by time varying confidence levels, so that the model is more economical, targeted and applicable; and finally, an improved hybrid particle swarm algorithm with a heuristic searching principle is adopted to solve a multi-variable mixed integer programming model of a text, and the effectiveness of the method is verified by example results.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of unit combination model establishment, in particular to a method for establishing a combination model including wind turbines considering the time series distribution of prediction errors. Background technique [0002] The large-scale grid-connection of uncertain wind power brings huge challenges to the operation and dispatch of traditional power grids. How to make it reasonable and efficient to participate in large-scale grid dispatching is necessary and urgent. [0003] Unit Combination (UC for short) is an important part of day-ahead dispatching. It is mainly based on the load forecast value to formulate the power generation plan of the unit in the future period (usually 24 hours), so as to minimize the cost of power generation. Compared with traditional load, wind power has stronger randomness and intermittency, and its relative forecast error is significantly larger than traditional load forecast. Th...

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Problems solved by technology

[0008] In terms of confidence level selection, the traditional chance constraint gives the confidence level, but does not give the selection basis and the risk value corresponding to the corresponding confidence level; Explain the corresponding relationship between

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