Methyl alcohol future price prediction method

A technology of futures price and prediction method, applied in the field of prediction, can solve the problem of no methanol futures price prediction, etc., and achieve the effect of accurate methanol futures price trend, accurate prediction, and simple and convenient acquisition.

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-07-20
SHANGHAI YUANLU JIAJIA INFORMATION SCI & TECH CO LTD
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Problems solved by technology

[0002] According to relevant research, there is currently no method for predicting the price of methanol futures based on variables such as prices and indexes in the securities market

Method used

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  • Methyl alcohol future price prediction method
  • Methyl alcohol future price prediction method
  • Methyl alcohol future price prediction method

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Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment

[0028] The following is a detailed description of the fitting steps of the methanol futures price prediction equation.

[0029] 1) According to market experience, 21 independent variables are selected (the corresponding closing price is used in the actual regression fitting process, and will not be described hereafter). According to the market nature of these 21 independent variables, they are divided into the following five aspects: US dollar index, crude oil index, bulk commodity index, coal price and domestic stock market. The specific classification and induction are shown in Table 1 below:

[0030] Table 121 independent variables

[0031]

[0032] 2) For the above classification method, calculate the independent variable with the highest Pearson correlation coefficient with methanol futures price in each module. The Pearson correlation coefficients between the 21 independent variables and the methanol futures price are shown in Table 2 below.

[0033] Table 2 Correl...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a methyl alcohol future price prediction method. The method is used for predicting the methyl alcohol future price in a future market and comprises the steps of: 1) obtaining a plurality of influence elements associated with the methyl alcohol future price and an influence factor corresponding to each influence element; 2) obtaining a Pearson coefficient of the influence factors in all influence elements and the methyl alcohol future price, and selecting two influence factors as independent variables of a methyl alcohol future price prediction model according to the Pearson coefficient; 3) taking the methyl alcohol future price as a dependent variable of the methyl alcohol future price prediction model and establishing the methyl alcohol future price prediction model through performing regression fitting on independent variable history data; and 4) predicting the methyl alcohol future price according to the methyl alcohol future price prediction model. Compared with the prior art, the methyl alcohol future price prediction method has the advantages that the data collection is convenient, the correlation is high, the prediction is precise, the prediction is simple and convenient and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a forecasting method, in particular to a methanol futures price forecasting method. Background technique [0002] According to relevant research, there is no method to predict the price of methanol futures based on the price, index and other variables in the securities market. Since the prices and indexes of different commodities in the securities market have certain correlations due to the relationship in the actual market, including positive and negative correlations, the price of methanol futures can be determined through the relevant commodity futures prices or is the relevant index for forecasting. Therefore, the methanol futures price prediction method described in this patent has a certain suggestion and guiding function for methanol futures traders or customers interested in methanol futures. Contents of the invention [0003] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a methanol futures price prediction met...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q30/02
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q30/0283
Inventor 杨炜祖李从恺
Owner SHANGHAI YUANLU JIAJIA INFORMATION SCI & TECH CO LTD
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