Transformer life probability evaluation method based on generalized extreme value distribution

Abstract

The invention discloses a transformer life probability evaluation method based on generalized extreme value distribution. The transformer life probability evaluation method regards an insulation paper polymerization degree as an index on the basis of establishing a transformer insulation paper aging first-order model, simulates a healthy operation state of a transformer by utilizing generalized extreme value distribution, and calculates a fault probability of the transformer based on Monte-Carlo simulation, so as to realize transformer life probability evaluation. The transformer life probability evaluation method can effectively identify influence on transformer operation life caused by various types of uncertainty stresses during the transformer operating process, so as to improve the judgment level of an operator facing contradiction between economy and reliability during the operation and maintenance process of the transformer, assists in selecting a reasonable transformer update occasion, effectively improves the technology transformation level and economic benefit of transformers of a power enterprise, and has a high practical engineering value.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of transformer life cycle management, in particular to a transformer life probability evaluation method based on generalized extreme value distribution. Background technique [0002] The safe operation of power transformers is one of the important lines of defense to ensure the reliable operation of the power grid. Whether it can operate reliably and healthily is directly related to the ability of the power grid to resist risks. Therefore, a reasonable evaluation of the life of the transformer to guide equipment maintenance and update work, to ensure that the transformer is in good working condition for a long time, has always been the top priority of equipment management and technical transformation work in power enterprises. As the most important primary equipment, the transformer occupies a considerable proportion in the assets of power enterprises, both in terms of quantity and economic expenditure. When...

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Problems solved by technology

However, there are various uncertain stresses in the operation of transformers, which will seriously affect the normal service life of transformers. As a result, the decision-making of transformer technical transformation often faces the problem of cross-contradiction between economy and reliability, which affects the judgment of operation and maintenance personnel.

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