Spatial saturation load forecasting method under new situation

Abstract

The invention discloses a spatial saturation load forecasting method under a new situation. The method comprises the following steps: forecasting plot total load through a plot load density index method; determining electric car ownership of a region to be detected in the future according to GDP, population size, electric vehicle permeability, road length and private car ownership quantity of the region to be detected in the future; carrying out classification on electric vehicles, and determining the proportion of each type of electric vehicles, and the type and number of electric charging facilities; carrying out analysis on load characteristics of each type of electric vehicles to obtain workday electric vehicle load and holiday electric vehicle load, the larger load being electric vehicle total load of the region to be detected; and superposing the electric vehicle total load and the plot total load, and allocating the load to each plot. The method realizes the purpose of collaborative optimization of electric vehicle load forecasting and urban power load forecasting, and has a greater auxiliary decision making significance to actions of urban distribution network construction and charging station planning, layout and expansion and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of distribution networks, and more specifically, relates to a method for predicting space-saturated loads under a new situation. Background technique [0002] Due to the increasingly prominent environmental and energy issues, as a representative of clean energy vehicles, electric vehicles have developed rapidly in recent years, and the charging load has also initially shown statistical characteristics. With the continuous improvement of power battery and vehicle technology, the large-scale application of electric vehicles is expanding, which may have a certain negative impact on the operation management, dispatching planning and other aspects of the power grid. The charging load of electric vehicles has a strong randomness in time distribution. When electric vehicles of a certain scale start to charge at the peak of the original load of the distribution network system, the load of electric vehicles will be added to th...

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Problems solved by technology

[0008] However, the main problem of the above-mentioned traditional long-term saturated load forecast is that it does not take into account the charging load of electric vehicles. After the large-scale promotion and application of electric vehicles, a large number of electric vehicle charging loads will inevitably have a certain impact on the overall regional load. The consequence is that the overall load forecast value of the region is too small. The most direct consequence is that it will have a serious impact on the planning and operation of the distribution network in the later stage, causing the construction of the distribution network to fail to meet the needs of load development.

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