Prediction method and prediction system for predicting generating capacity of photovoltaic power generation system

Abstract

The embodiments of the invention disclose a prediction method and a prediction system for predicting the generating capacity of a photovoltaic power generation system. The prediction method comprises the following steps: estimating the proportion of the area of cloud in the sky in the sky area corresponding to a second preset moment according to the proportion of the area of cloud in the sky in the sky area corresponding to a first preset moment; calculating the total solar radiation at the second preset moment according to the proportion of the area of cloud in the sky in the sky area corresponding to the second preset moment; and finally, predicting the generating capacity of a photovoltaic power generation system at the second preset moment according to the total solar radiation and the temperature at the second preset moment. The error of the prediction method for predicting the generating capacity of a photovoltaic power generation system provided by the embodiments of the invention is within the allowable error range. The time range for prediction is extended.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation, in particular to a method and system for predicting the power generation of a photovoltaic power generation system. Background technique [0002] In recent years, more and more photovoltaic power generation systems have been connected to the grid for operation, but the randomness and intermittency of their power generation have increasingly prominent negative impacts on the economical, safe and reliable operation of the power system. Therefore, there is an urgent need for photovoltaic The power generation of the power generation system is accurately predicted so that corresponding technical measures can be taken to suppress or compensate fluctuations in photovoltaic power generation to ensure the economical, safe and reliable operation of the power system. [0003] At present, the short-term prediction method of photovoltaic power generation system mainly adopts the indirect...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, because the shape and trajectory of the cloud layer may change greatly over a long period of time, when a certain cloud layer does not enter or has left the current field of view of the sky imaging system, the analysis of the cloud trajectory before and after its appearance will generate The step effect increases the prediction error, making it impossible to predict the trajectory of the cloud during this period through the sky imaging system, which leads to the limited cloud trajectory obtained by the sky imaging system in the above prediction method, resulting in the photovoltaic system in the prior art. The forecasting method of the power generation system of the power generation system is within the allowable range of the forecast error, and the time that can be predicted is relatively limited, that is, the power generation capacity of the photovoltaic power generation system can only be predicted in a short period of time in the future (such as within 2 hours), and it cannot be predicted for a longer period of time. The power generation of the photovoltaic power generation system within a certain time period (such as outside 2 hours)

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