A real-time flood control risk analysis calculation method considering flood evolution error
A calculation method and river channel technology, applied in calculation, complex mathematical operations, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as low calculation efficiency, insufficient versatility, and no consideration of the influence of the river channel system, so as to achieve a simple and universal analytical calculation method. Strong, easy-to-achieve effects
Active Publication Date: 2019-04-30
HOHAI UNIV
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Problems solved by technology
[0003] At present, the existing river channel real-time flood control risk assessment methods mainly have the following deficiencies: (1) The influence of the river flood evolution error on the real-time flood control risk of the river channel system is not considered; Not high, not enough versatility
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[0029] In order to further illustrate the technical solutions disclosed in the present invention, a detailed description will be given below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.
[0030] The present invention comprehensively considers the uncertainty of the outflow process of the upstream flood control project, the uncertainty of the interval flood process and the evolution error of the river flood, and solves the downstream flood control section according to the principle of "act first and then combine" of the river flood evolution and the convolution formula Based on the probability density distribution function of the combined discharge, the definition of the real-time flood control risk of the river system is proposed, and the analytical calculation formula of the real-time flood control risk of the river system at each time is solved according to the probability density distribution function of the combined discharge of the downstream floo...
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The invention discloses a real-time flood control risk analytical calculation method for a river in consideration of a flood evolution error. The method comprises the following steps: (1) establishinga mathematical expression of an uncertainty factor; (2) solving a probability density distribution function of combined flow of a downstream flood control section; (3) establishing a real-time floodcontrol risk model for a river system, and analyzing the real-time flood control risk of the river system at each moment; and (4) calculating the real-time flood control risk of the river system. Themethod considers the influence of the river flood evolution error on the real-time flood control risk of the river system, and establishes an analytical calculation formula for the real-time flood control risk of the river system at each moment, so that the method is high in calculation efficiency, easy to implement and strong in universality.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention belongs to river course real-time flood control risk assessment, in particular to a river course real-time flood control risk analysis calculation method considering flood evolution error. Background technique [0002] The river system is one of the important engineering measures for flood control and disaster reduction in a river basin. However, in the process of real-time flood control dispatching of the river channel, there are uncertain factors, including the uncertainty of the outflow process of the upstream flood control project, the uncertainty of the interval flood forecast process, and the evolution error of the river channel flood. These uncertain factors lead to The uncertainty of the combined discharge of the flood control section in the lower reaches of the river has brought risks to the decision-making of flood control and affected the benefits of flood control. Therefore, the risk assessment of river real-time flood contro...
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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/26G06F17/18
CPCG06F17/18G06Q10/0635G06Q50/26Y02A10/40
Inventor 陈娟钟平安朱非林杨敏芝李洁玉高益辉
Owner HOHAI UNIV