Method of predicting whole society power consumption based on dual-energy indexes

Abstract

The present invention discloses a method of predicting the whole society power consumption based on the dual-energy indexes. The method comprises the steps of firstly converting the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) into the comparable GDP taking a particular year as the reference; then calculating the unit GDP energy consumption of the historical years according to the comparable GDP; then establishing a unit GDP energy consumption regression prediction model according to the unit GDP energy consumption values of the historical years; putting the primary energy consumption total amount ofthe historical years and the whole society power consumption into an electric energy-terminal energy consumption proportion calculation model to obtain the electric energy-terminal energy consumptionproportion values of the historical years, and planning correspondingly to obtain the electric energy-terminal energy consumption proportion value of the predicted year; and finally, putting the primary energy consumption total amount of the predicted year and the electric energy-terminal energy consumption proportion of the predicted year into the above calculation model to obtain the whole society power consumption of the predicted year. The method of the present invention predicts the whole society power consumption according to dual-energy indexes of the unit GDP energy consumption and theelectric energy-terminal energy consumption proportion, thereby being able to be used as the bases of making the electric power demand plans, and very facilitating predicting the electric power supply-demand situation and planning the electric power.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of electricity quantity demand forecasting, in particular to a method for predicting electricity consumption of the whole society based on dual-energy indicators. Background technique [0002] The electricity consumption of the whole society refers to the total electricity consumption of all electricity consumption fields such as the primary, secondary and tertiary industries, including industrial electricity consumption, agricultural electricity consumption, commercial electricity consumption, residential electricity consumption, public facilities electricity consumption and other electricity consumption. Wait. With the development of social economy, people's living standards continue to improve, and the electricity consumption of the whole society continues to increase. The accuracy of electricity forecasting has a greater impact on the development of power companies. Power forecasting is an impor...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The existing power forecasting methods have certain limitations: (1) curve analysis method, the results of different model data are quite different; (2) elastic coefficient method, elastic coefficient method is closely related to the national economy, with the development of social economy , with the continuous intervention of new energy sources, electricity consumption is no longer simply linked to the national economy

(3) Regression analysis method, regression analysis method needs to analyze the historical data of the impact factor and electricity consumption, the data in the morning is difficult to find, and the uncertainty of the impact factor is great

However, this invention uses high-energy-carrying enterprises as representatives to indirectly predict the electricity consumption demand of the whole society. It does not use the two indicators of energy consumption per unit of GDP and the proportion of electric energy in final energy consumption, and the method of the invention is used to predict There is a large error between the electricity consumption of the whole society and the real situation

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