Traffic accident frequency prediction method based on traffic analysis cells

Abstract

The invention discloses a traffic accident frequency prediction method based on traffic analysis cells. According to the method, first, historical accident data of all the traffic analysis cells within a research range is collected; second, a geographically weighted regression model is adopted to set a relation between accident frequency of the traffic analysis cells and explanatory variables andset a matrix form of parameters in front of the explanatory variables and a weight function in the parameter estimation process; third, model parameter estimation is performed; and finally accident frequency prediction is performed according to a valid accident prediction model. Through the method, the problems that in the past, differences in geographical units at a county level and a city levelare large, it is assumed that all the geographical units are mutually independent through a generalized linear model, consequently, spatial correlation and heterogeneity of accident data cannot be explained, and prediction accuracy is influenced are solved, different influences of different spatial position explanatory variables on accident frequency can be described, and guidance is provided fortraffic safety control.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a method for predicting the frequency of traffic accidents based on a traffic analysis area. Specifically, a geographically weighted regression model is used to propose a method for predicting the frequency of traffic accidents based on a traffic analysis area. The frequency of accidents can be predicted based on the traffic analysis area, which involves traffic safety. field. Background technique [0002] With the development of road traffic and the deepening of motorization, traffic safety issues have become increasingly prominent. In 2010 alone, a total of 3,906,164 road traffic accidents were reported across the country, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%. Among them, road traffic accidents involving casualties 219,521 cases, resulting in 65,225 deaths, 254,075 injuries, and direct property losses of 930 million yuan. In the past ten years, the economic losses caused by traffic accidents in my country have reached tens...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] Purpose of the invention: In view of the relatively large internal differences in county and city-level geographical units in the past and the assumption that each geographical unit is independent of each other in the framework of the generalized linear model, it cannot explain the spatial correlation and heterogeneity of accident data and affect the accuracy of prediction. The present invention proposes a A traffic accident frequency prediction method based on the traffic analysis area, which can consider the spatial correlation and heterogeneity in the accident prediction, can describe the different influences of different spatial position explanatory variables on the accident frequency, and can improve the prediction accuracy

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