Method and system for monitoring abnormal fluctuation risk of agricultural product market

Abstract

The invention discloses a method and system for monitoring an abnormal fluctuation risk of an agricultural product market. The method comprises the steps: obtaining historical agricultural product data of a monitoring early-warning object; analyzing a price fluctuation rule through combining with the historical agricultural product data; carrying out the fitting of the price fluctuation distribution mode according to the historical agricultural product data and the price fluctuation rule; determining an early-warning threshold value of the market abnormal fluctuation through combining with thedistribution mode; obtaining the real-time agricultural product data of the monitoring early-warning object; calculating a price change amplitude of the monitoring early-warning object according to the distribution through combining with the real-time agricultural product data; judging whether the price change amplitude exceeds the early-warning threshold value or not: issuing the early-warning information if the price change amplitude exceeds the early-warning threshold value. The method or system provided by the invention achieves the monitoring and early warning of the market price of an agricultural product.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the field of agricultural product market forecasting, in particular to a method and system for monitoring the risk of abnormal fluctuations in the agricultural product market. Background technique [0002] Under the background of in-depth development of informatization, marketization and globalization, my country's agriculture is more and more closely connected with the national economy, more sensitive to emergencies, and more and more influenced by the international market. The continued impact of the financial crisis, changes in global energy prices, active speculation and frequent extreme weather also bring great uncertainty to the healthy and orderly operation of China's agricultural product market. Especially in recent years, the phenomenon of ups and downs in the agricultural product market has occurred from time to time. Farmers are "difficult to sell" and citizens are "expensive to buy". Because it is difficult...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, in my country’s research on the risk monitoring and early warning of abnormal fluctuations in the agricultural product market, the existing analysis is mostly qualitative, and most of the post-event analysis is to study and analyze the event after the abnormal fluctuation occurs, and it is impossible to carry out early warning before the fluctuation occurs. , it is difficult to achieve the effect of monitoring and early warning

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