Load forecasting method based on time series and Kalman filtering

A Kalman filter and time series technology, applied in forecasting, complex mathematical operations, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as complex and inaccurate calculations, and achieve the effect of improving accuracy and reducing errors

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-03-23
国网四川雅安电力(集团)股份有限公司
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The invention provides a load forecasting method based on time series and Kalman filtering, which solves the technical problems of inaccuracy or complicated calculation in the existing power load forecasting method, and realizes the technology of improving the accuracy of power load forecasting and simple calculation Effect

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  • Load forecasting method based on time series and Kalman filtering
  • Load forecasting method based on time series and Kalman filtering
  • Load forecasting method based on time series and Kalman filtering

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Embodiment Construction

[0046] The present invention provides a load forecasting method based on time series and Kalman filtering, which solves the technical problems of inaccuracy or complicated calculations in the existing electric load forecasting methods, and realizes the technology of improving the accuracy of electric load forecasting and simple calculations. effect.

[0047] In order to be able to understand the above objectives, features and advantages of the present invention more clearly, the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments. It should be noted that the embodiments of the present application and the features in the embodiments can be combined with each other if they do not conflict with each other.

[0048] In the following description, many specific details are explained in order to fully understand the present invention. However, the present invention can also be implemented in other ways differen...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a load forecasting method based on time series and Kalman filtering. The method comprises the following steps of smoothing electric load data by a first-order difference method; selecting a time series model according to AIC criterions; substituting the smoothed data into the selected time series model to obtain a time series forecasting equation; establishing a Kalman filter equation; modifying the Kalman filter equation to obtain an adaptive Kalman filter equation; substituting the obtained time series forecasting equation into the adaptive Kalman filter equation to obtain an electric load forecasting model based on the time series-adaptive Kalman filter; and substituting the known electric load data into the electric load forecasting model to obtain the electricload forecast data at the next moment. The method solves the technical problem that the existing electric load forecasting method is inaccurate, and the method realizes the technical effect of improving the accuracy of electric load forecasting.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of power load forecasting, and in particular to a load forecasting method based on time series and Kalman filtering. Background technique [0002] Providing users with high-quality and stable electrical energy is the main task of the power system, and the prerequisite for achieving this task is electricity [0003] The operation, dispatching and planning departments must grasp the electricity consumption laws and changing trends of users. The sign of power marketization is to break the monopoly in all aspects of power production and supply, introduce competition, realize the optimal allocation of resources, and improve social and economic benefits. All companies in the electricity market must accurately grasp the market context, understand the users' electricity demand, laws and changing trends, and formulate reasonable marketing plans and development strategies to pursue the economic benefits of the company. And load fore...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/11G06F17/18G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06F17/11G06F17/18G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 田云翔柳强赵君伟
Owner 国网四川雅安电力(集团)股份有限公司
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