Permafrost region highway distress prediction method based on uncertainty cloud theory

A technology of uncertainty and prediction method, applied in the field of risk prediction and road disease, it can solve the problems of ambiguity and poor guidance of prediction results, and achieve the effect of strong adaptability, expansion of application scope, and comprehensive consideration of factors.

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-04-03
CHANGAN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

However, the prediction of road damage in permafrost regions is affected by many uncertain factors such as environment, engineering, and man-made, and the information expressing these factors itself has uncertainty and ambiguity. At present, most prediction meth

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  • Permafrost region highway distress prediction method based on uncertainty cloud theory
  • Permafrost region highway distress prediction method based on uncertainty cloud theory
  • Permafrost region highway distress prediction method based on uncertainty cloud theory

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Embodiment Construction

[0030] The technical solutions of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the embodiments. Apparently, the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of them. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0031] Aiming at the characteristics of complex conditions in permafrost regions and numerous uncertain factors in road damage prediction, the present invention uses the uncertainty cloud theory to comprehensively consider these problems, and proposes a method for predicting road damage in permafrost regions based on the uncertainty cloud theory .

[0032] Such as image 3 Shown, the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0033] 1) Select a section of the Qinghai-Tibet Highway as the target area for da...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a permafrost region highway distress prediction method based on an uncertainty cloud theory. According to the implementation process, (1) data is collected, and an original database is established; (2) evaluation parameters are selected, and initial concept division is performed; (3) parameter cloud model concept zooming is evaluated, and feature values are extracted; (4) highway distress concept division is performed, and feature values are extracted; (5) inference rules are determined, a quantitatively expressed inference rule parameter list is obtained, and a rule base is constructed; (6) a qualitative inference generator of a three-dimensional multi-rule cloud model of permafrost region highway distress is established; (7) a rule generation base antecedent is accessed, and the rule with the highest activation degree is found; and (8) a rule generation base consequent is activated, and the highway distress degree is output. Through the method, the cloud modeltheory is applied to permafrost region highway distress prediction, fuzziness and randomness are comprehensively considered, and the method has higher adaptability.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of road disease and risk prediction, and relates to a road disease prediction method in permafrost regions based on uncertainty cloud theory. Background technique [0002] The cloud model has the characteristics of macro precision, micro fuzziness, macro control, and micro uncontrollability. Its essential unit is the concept cloud composed of cloud droplets. The idea is to take into account both randomness and fuzziness. The cloud model is a two-way cognitive model between a qualitative concept represented by language value and its quantitative representation. It is used to reflect the uncertainty of concepts in natural language. It can not only be explained by classical probability theory and fuzzy mathematics, but also It reflects the relationship between randomness and fuzziness, especially the method of probability to study fuzziness, which constitutes the mutual mapping between qualitative and quantitat...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/26G06N5/04G06F17/30
CPCG06N5/04G06N5/048G06Q10/04G06Q50/26G06F16/2462
Inventor 张驰秦际涵侯宇迪崔星张敏宫权利冯逸伟韩方元
Owner CHANGAN UNIV
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