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Medium- and long-term air pollution forecast model combining with large-scale weather system index

An air pollution and forecasting model technology, which is applied in weather forecasting, meteorology, measuring devices, etc., can solve problems such as difficulties in air pollution forecasting, and achieve the effects of clear forecast results, easy promotion, and easy forecasting process.

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-04-24
LANZHOU UNIVERSITY
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  • Claims
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Problems solved by technology

At the same time, there are many methods to study the change of pollution concentration according to pollution sources by using the atmospheric diffusion model, but such calculation methods are closely dependent on the emission inventory of pollution sources, and it is difficult to forecast air pollution in areas where air pollution monitoring is scarce.

Method used

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  • Medium- and long-term air pollution forecast model combining with large-scale weather system index

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Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0016] A kind of medium and long-term air pollution forecasting model of the present invention combined with large-scale weather system index, at first utilize the conventional meteorological data that observation obtains and the data that NCEP (National Meteorological Center of the United States), NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research of the United States) provide, according to relevant formula Algorithm to calculate polar vortex index and Siberian high index by Fortran programming.

[0017] Secondly, through the SPSS (statistical correlation software can find the correlation between data) software, the correlation between the Air Quality Index (AirQualityIndex) AQI and the calculated polar vortex index and Siberia index in the same time period is established by stepwise regression method, The length of the data is 14 years from 2000 to 2013. Using leading, contemporaneous and lagging correlation analysis, it is found that among the large-scale weather systems that a...

Embodiment 2

[0021] The polar vortex index and Siberian high pressure index from December 3rd to 17th, 2014 were calculated by using the geopotential height field data and sea level pressure field data, and brought into the forecast equation:

[0022] y(i)=13.174×X 1 (i)+12.614×X 2 (i)+69

[0023] The AQI value of this time period is obtained, and the comparison with the observed real value is shown in the following table:

[0024] Table 1. Comparison of the predicted AQI and the actual value obtained by using the equation

[0025] Calculated

81

85

105

92

100

91

85

91

95

97

100

91

90

104

97

actual value

70

105

158

92

113

120

67

106

95

95

125

138

94

94

89

[0026] As shown in Table 1, the error range between the calculated value and the real value is about 20, and the classification accuracy rate reaches 73%. Except for the incorrect calculation of individual data, other data a...

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Abstract

The invention provides a medium- and long-term air pollution forecast model combining with a large-scale weather system index, and the air pollution forecast model employs a historical large-scale weather system index and air quality index data for the statistical analysis of the correlation between the air quality index and other large-scale weather system indexes and obtains a correlation equation: y(i)=13.174*X1(i)+12.614*X2(i)+X3, wherein y is the air quality index, X1 is a polar vortex index, X2 is a Siberian index, X3 is a fixed value, and i is a date. According to the invention, the model employs the medium- and long-term weather situation forecast theory which is mature currently, employs a polar vortex which is easy to computerize and a Siberian high-pressure quantification characterization method, achieves the forecast easily, is clear in forecast result, and is easy for popularization for the public.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of air pollution forecasting, in particular to a medium- and long-term air pollution forecasting model combined with a large-scale weather system index. Background technique [0002] In recent years, my country's air pollution has become more and more severe, seriously threatening people's health. Among the operational forecasts that have been carried out, only the air pollution forecasts are within 7 days. At the same time, there are many methods to study the change of pollution concentration by using the atmospheric diffusion model according to the pollution source, but such calculation methods are closely dependent on the emission inventory of pollution sources, and it is difficult to forecast air pollution in areas where air pollution monitoring is scarce. [0003] The occurrence and consumption of air pollution are closely related to the weather situation. The mid- and long-term forecast of air polluti...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10
Inventor 李艳王琪王嘉禾路遥马百胜
Owner LANZHOU UNIVERSITY
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