Regional comprehensive energy system reliability evaluation method considering heat load dynamic characteristics

Abstract

The invention discloses a regional comprehensive energy system reliability evaluation method considering heat load dynamic characteristics. The regional comprehensive energy system reliability evaluation method comprises the following steps that according to a selected regional comprehensive energy system, data of electricity, natural gas and regional heating system data, energy concentrator data,failure rate of various components, electricity, gas and heatload shedding price data, a hierarchical decoupling optimal convergence judgment threshold value, a reliability index convergence judgmentthreshold value, the maximum number of sampling and the building interior design temperature are input; running states of all components are selected to conduct system state analysis; power flow optimization calculation is conducted to the selected system state to obtain load shedding amount of electricity, gas and heat load shedding amount in the system state; the reliability index is calculated, wherein the reliability index comprises expected load reduction and expected load reduction frequency of the electricity, gas and heat; a reliability index convergence criterion is calculated; the number of quasi-sequential sampling is judged; and the electricity / gas / heat area comprehensive energy system reliability index is output. Electricity / gas / heat area comprehensive energy system reliability can be more accurately evaluated.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for evaluating the reliability of a regional integrated energy system. In particular, it relates to a reliability assessment method for regional integrated energy systems considering the dynamic characteristics of thermal load. Background technique [0002] In order to alleviate the pressure of energy depletion and deal with environmental pollution, improving energy utilization efficiency and increasing renewable energy utilization have become the focus of research in various countries. The integrated energy system is an energy supply system that integrates the production, transmission, distribution, conversion, storage, and consumption of multiple energy sources. The overall planning and scheduling of electricity, gas, cold, heat, biological, chemical and other energy is carried out. Effectively improve the flexibility, safety, reliability and economy of energy supply. At present, the coupling equipment represented by th...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] After considering the dynamic characteristics of the heat load, the time continuity between the system states needs to be considered when selecting the system state. The sequential method is the main method to analyze the timing problem in the traditional method, but the sequential method has a long calculation time and the calculation Large quantity and other deficiencies, so the quasi-sequential method is used to select the system state

At present, the analysis and calculation of regional comprehensive energy systems mainly include joint solution method and decoupling solution method. Among them, the joint solution method needs to establish a unified electrothermal optimization solution model, which involves many optimization variables, has a large amount of calculation, and takes a long time to calculate. Long, difficult to converge, etc., it is not suitable for reliability state analysis problems

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