An efficient calculation method of probability failure risk assessment based on probability density evolution theory

A technology of risk assessment and probability density, applied in the field of risk assessment, can solve the problem of low efficiency of failure probability calculation, and achieve the effect of improving calculation efficiency

Active Publication Date: 2019-01-18
BEIHANG UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] Aiming at the problem of low calculation efficiency of failure probability in the probabilistic failure risk assessment of aeroengine rotor discs, the present invention proposes an efficie

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  • An efficient calculation method of probability failure risk assessment based on probability density evolution theory
  • An efficient calculation method of probability failure risk assessment based on probability density evolution theory
  • An efficient calculation method of probability failure risk assessment based on probability density evolution theory

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Embodiment Construction

[0033] The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0034] The invention discloses an efficient calculation method for probabilistic failure risk assessment based on probability density evolution theory, which includes the following steps for the probability failure risk assessment of an aeroengine rotor disk: first, based on probability density evolution theory, a joint probability density evolution of random variables is established Equation; the random variable here is only represented by the size of the defect, and a variety of random variables can also be considered. If a variety of random variables are considered, it is difficult to obtain the multivariate joint probability density when the number of flight cycles is N, and each random variable at the initial moment Since they are independent of each other, their joint probability density is known. By reversely solving the fracture mechanics formula, the...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an efficient calculation method of probability failure risk assessment based on probability density evolution theory, belonging to the field of risk assessment. Aiming at the rotor disk of aero-engine, the density evolution equation of failure probability is established when probability failure risk assessment is carried out. By using the mapping relation between probability distributions in the density evolution equation of failure probability, the mapping omega 0 of failure domain at the initial time is obtained. Based on the detection probability of nondestructive testing, the detection region is defined in the failure region with corresponding proportion. Then, the mapping omega 0 of the detection domain at the initial time is obtained by using the mapping relation established by the density evolution equation of the failure probability. By integrating the joint probability density function in the failure domain and the detection domain, the failure probability of the roulette disc under the number of cycles N is obtained. The invention guarantees the requirement of the calculation precision of the failure risk assessment, and effectively improves the calculation efficiency of the failure probability.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an efficient calculation method for probability failure risk assessment based on probability density evolution theory, belonging to the field of risk assessment. Background technique [0002] A damage tolerant design approach has proven to be advantageous in the life management of an aeroengine rotor disk. Compared with the traditional safe life method, the probabilistic damage tolerance design method can consider the defects introduced from the material itself, the processing process and the use and maintenance process, and can also consider the random factors related to load and non-destructive inspection. These random factors will have a great influence on the structural fatigue fracture of engine life-limiting parts. [0003] The airworthiness regulations embody the design concept of probabilistic damage tolerance, and suggest probabilistic failure risk assessment for life-limited parts of aero-engines, requiring that the ...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06F17/18G06F17/50
CPCG06F17/18G06Q10/0635G06F30/20
Inventor 李果丁水汀刘俊博刘晓静
Owner BEIHANG UNIV
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