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Rainfall prediction method based on autoregressive integral slide average and support vector regression

A technology of support vector regression and moving average, applied in the field of meteorological data analysis, can solve the problem of low accuracy and achieve the effect of improving accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2019-02-22
KUNMING UNIV OF SCI & TECH
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Problems solved by technology

Using a large amount of data and processing and analyzing the data in a reasonable way is the prerequisite for precipitation prediction, but some existing rainfall data prediction methods have the disadvantage of low accuracy

Method used

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  • Rainfall prediction method based on autoregressive integral slide average and support vector regression
  • Rainfall prediction method based on autoregressive integral slide average and support vector regression
  • Rainfall prediction method based on autoregressive integral slide average and support vector regression

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Embodiment 1

[0033] Embodiment 1: as figure 1 As shown, a rainfall prediction method based on autoregressive integral moving average and support vector regression, the specific steps are:

[0034] Step1: Collect rainfall data and generate a rainfall database;

[0035] Step2: Obtain the data in the rainfall database and convert the daily rainfall data into time series;

[0036] Step3: Import the time series generated in Step2 into the autoregressive integral sliding average model for calculation and analysis;

[0037] Step4: Use the genetic algorithm to find the optimal parameters of the support vector regression model;

[0038] Step5: Import the calculation and analysis results generated in Step3 and the optimal parameters generated in Step4 into the support vector regression model for calculation and analysis;

[0039] Step6: According to the calculation and analysis results obtained in Step5, the forecast results of rainfall are obtained.

[0040] In the step Step3, the calculation f...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a rainfall prediction method based on autoregressive integral slide average and support vector regression and belongs to the meteorological data analysis method technology field. The method comprises the following steps of collecting rainfall data and generating a rainfall database; acquiring the data in the rainfall database and converting daily rainfall data into a timesequence; then, introducing a generated time sequence into an autoregressive integral slide average model for calculation and analysis; simultaneously, using a genetic algorithm to find the optimal parameter of a support vector regression model; then, introducing a generated calculation analysis result and the generated optimal parameter into the support vector regression model for calculation andanalysis; and finally, according to a calculation and analysis result, acquiring the prediction result of rainfall. In the invention, the autoregressive integral slide average model and the support vector regression model are used to process rainfall data so as to increase the accuracy of rainfall prediction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a rainfall prediction method based on autoregressive integral sliding average and support vector regression, and belongs to the technical field of meteorological data analysis methods. Background technique [0002] In modern society, meteorological forecast is closely related to our life, especially the accuracy of rainfall forecast, which affects the decision-making and planning of many industries. Improving the level of rainfall forecast can contribute to the reasonable and sustainable development of water resources. operate. Using a large amount of data, and processing and analyzing the data through reasonable methods is the prerequisite for precipitation forecasting, but some existing methods of rainfall data forecasting have the disadvantage of low accuracy. Contents of the invention [0003] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a rainfall prediction method based on autoregressive in...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10
CPCG01W1/10
Inventor 宋耀莲
Owner KUNMING UNIV OF SCI & TECH
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