Method and device for predicting output of distributed power supply

Abstract

The embodiment of the invention discloses a method and a device for predicting the output of a distributed power supply. The method comprises the following steps: determining an output lower limit ofthe distributed power supply according to a fluctuation formula of uncertain parameters in an information gap decision-making theory; calculating original power supply capacity according to a preset power supply capacity model and a total output predicted value; determining a power supply capacity lower limit according to original power supply capacity and a first preset deviation factor; determining a maximum deviation factor value as a first deviation factor when the negative value of an objective function is not greater than the power supply capacity lower limit by taking the negative valueof power supply capacity as the objective function of a risk avoidance model; and determining the output range of the distributed power supply under the risk avoidance model according to the first deviation factor and the fluctuation formula. The output of the distributed power supply can be predicted relatively accurately under the premise of uncertainty for the output of the distributed power supply, the calculation for the power supply capacity of a power distribution network is relatively accurate, and a decision-making basis is provided for real-time operation control of the power distribution network.

Description

technical field [0001] The present application relates to the technical field of electric power market, and in particular to a method and device for output forecasting of distributed power sources. Background technique [0002] With the continuous development of distributed generation (DER) in the distribution network, its access ratio continues to increase. Moreover, due to the uncertainty of distributed generation output, DER has an increasing impact on the power supply capacity of the distribution network. [0003] With the continuous advancement of China's electric power reform, the power market is also constantly advancing. Power trading in the day-ahead market is a continuous, real-time process of supply and demand balance and price determination. Real-time trading is to divide each day into several time periods, and auction and bid the load by time period. All parties involved in real-time power market transactions hope to obtain the power supply capacity informatio...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] However, due to the uncertainty of distributed power output, that is, the active power and reactive power of each node are uncertain, the distributed power output calculated by the existing method is not accurate enough to calculate the power supply capacity of the distribution network It cannot provide decision-making basis for the real-time operation control of distribution network

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