An Inventory Optimization Method Based on Probabilistic Demand Distribution

Abstract

The invention discloses an inventory optimization method based on probability demand distribution. The method comprises the following steps of: an existing enterprise informatization management platform is relied on. inventory remainders of the commodities are extracted; warehouse entry and exit details, Sales order, purchasing multi-dimensional data such as advanced stage and the like; the methodcomprises the following steps: firstly, constructing probability distribution of warehouse-out quantity in a purchasing advance LT; if the warehouse-out quantity in the LT day is q (q is greater than0); historical warehouse-out frequency distribution is counted; according to the invention, a required probability density function f (q) can be obtained, so that an expected value corresponding to acertain probability value alpha is obtained, wherein 0 < =alpha < = 1. Therefore, a function relationship between the probability value and the demand prediction value is established. And then determining a target satisfaction rate Sopt, calculating a simulation satisfaction rate Si according to the F (alpha) traversal probability value alphai until Si is greater than or equal to the Sopt, and training an optimal probability and a corresponding demand prediction value. According to the method, the prediction idea of demand probability distribution is creatively introduced, and inventory optimization benefit maximization is achieved under the condition that the satisfaction rate is guaranteed for the pain point problems of large commodity demand fluctuation and high prediction difficulty of current enterprises.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of information forecasting, and in particular relates to the design of an inventory optimization method based on probability demand distribution. Background technique [0002] In the activities of production, operation and commodity sales, enterprises often need to store the purchased raw materials, produced products and sold commodities for use and sales. However, real business scenarios are highly complex, and the coordination between demand and supply, consumption and storage will directly lead to an unbalanced state of supply and demand. On the one hand, it may cause a backlog of materials, resulting in slow capital turnover and increased inventory costs; on the other hand On the one hand, due to the shortage of materials, production stoppages or out-of-stock sales have caused economic losses due to reduced profits for business units. [0003] In order to effectively manage the inventory structure, gene...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, due to the strong randomness of the demand for commodities, the error in forecasting sales using the moving average model will be large; in addition, it is difficult to correctly grasp the sales volume of seasonal commodities using the sales data of the past month or three months. seasonal factors

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