AIRPORTP Symmetry Model (ASM)-based flight delay prediction and propagation analysis method

Abstract

The invention provides an AIRPORTP Symmetry Model (ASM)-based flight delay prediction and propagation analysis method. According to the method, first, to solve the delay prediction problem, an MNR model is constructed by using information like flight message data, airplane departure time at a previous station, an airplane model, and whether a VIP is on the airplane, so as to predict flight arrivaltime; second, to solve the delay propagation problem, a delay propagation symmetry model ASM is constructed by using MPM, the concept of deformation gradient is defined, if the deformation gradient is less than zero, the flight is not affected by delay, or, the flight is delayed due to factors or the flight or external factors; and finally, if the flight is affected, MNR is improved based on theASM model, a transmission factor is introduced for each parameter of the MNR model so as to analyze delay propagation, flight delay time is updated in real time based on propagation analysis, an arrival delay equation can be updated in real time, the delay propagation problem is considered thoroughly, the obtained result is more accurate, and calculation is faster.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of civil aviation, in particular to an ASM-based flight delay prediction and ripple analysis method. Background technique [0002] Flight delays are the focus of air transport service disputes. In recent years, with the continuous growth of China's civil aviation traffic, this issue has received more and more attention. Flight delays not only bring direct economic losses to airports and airlines, but also cause great inconvenience to passengers' normal travel, and seriously disrupt the normal order of airports. For airlines, each aircraft executes multiple flights in one day, and when the upstream flight is delayed, it can effectively predict the delay of the downstream flight, which is helpful for improving the service quality of the airline and enhancing the competition of the airline. power has important practical significance. [0003] For example, the invention patent with the application publication ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] In view of the defects that the existing flight delay analysis methods mostly use static model prediction, the calculation amount is large, and the prediction accuracy is poor in special cases, an ASM-based flight delay prediction and spillover analysis method is proposed

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