Frequency modulation capacity time-sharing optimization method based on conditional probability

Abstract

The invention provides a frequency modulation capacity time-sharing optimization method based on conditional probability, and belongs to the field of power system automatic power generation control of. The method comprises the steps of firstly collecting the historical data of an AGC control area, and screening a sample composed of the historical data according to an AGC assessment period; constructing and training an extreme learning machine model predicted by a net load standard deviation section to obtain a trained extreme learning machine model; in an application phase, outputting, by the trained extreme learning machine model, the net load standard deviation section predicted values corresponding to the respective time periods on a certain day in the future, and according to the screened data of each AGC assessment period, calculating frequency modulation performance standard-reaching probabilities corresponding to the up-regulation capacity and the down-regulation capacity of the prediction time period, and obtaining the up-regulation reserve capacity optimization result and the down-regulation capacity reserve capacity optimization result of this time period. The method can correct the calculation result of a frequency modulation capacity demand according to a frequency modulation score, and the obtained result can truly reflect the frequency modulation capacity demand of a power system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of automatic power generation control of electric power systems, and in particular relates to a conditional probability-based method for optimizing frequency modulation capacity by time period. Background technique [0002] Automatic generation control (AGC) is of great significance to balance the active power deviation of the power system and maintain the stability of the system frequency. The normal operation of the AGC system needs sufficient frequency regulation reserve as support, but too much frequency regulation reserve will cause high operating costs of the power grid. Therefore, accurate calculation of power system frequency regulation capacity requirements is of great significance for maintaining grid frequency stability and reducing grid operating costs. [0003] With the rapid growth of renewable energy in recent years, the uncertainty and volatility of its output have increased the difficulty of power sy...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In recent years, the rapid growth of renewable energy, the uncertainty and volatility of its output has increased the difficulty of power system active power balance, and also made the calculation of frequency regulation capacity requirements more complicated

[0004] At present, in the actual power system, the demand for frequency regulation capacity is mostly fixed at each time period according to experience. However, the applicability of this method is gradually reduced under the condition of rapid growth of renewable energy.

However, the method of calculating system frequency regulation capacity requirements based on the distribution of system active power fluctuations does not use frequency regulation scores as feedback to correct the calculation results, resulting in calculation results that cannot truly reflect the frequency regulation capacity requirements of the power system

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