Method and system for predicting future hydropower generation capacity of watershed considering climate change

Abstract

The invention discloses a method and system for predicting the future hydropower generation capacity of a watershed considering climate change, which belongs to the cross field of hydrological forecasting and power generation dispatching. Collect historical runoff data, input the historical meteorological data and historical runoff data of the basin into the VIC hydrological model, calibrate and test the model parameters of the VIC hydrological model, and obtain the rainfall runoff model of the basin, and input the predicted future rainfall and temperature scenarios of the basin into the rainfall runoff The model is used to obtain the future runoff scenario of the watershed section; the optimal scheduling model of the combined power generation of the watershed and reservoir group is established, and the future runoff scenario of the watershed section is input into the optimal scheduling model of the combined power generation of the watershed and reservoir group to predict the future hydropower generation capacity of the watershed. The invention considers the climate change of the watershed and the uneven distribution of the underlying surface of the watershed, and alleviates the problem of dimension disaster in large-scale reservoir group scheduling.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the cross fields of hydrological forecasting and power generation dispatching, and more specifically relates to a method and system for predicting the future hydropower generation capacity of a watershed considering climate change. Background technique [0002] The watershed reservoir group is a complex and huge system. The prediction of its power generation capacity involves the fields of hydrological forecasting and reservoir dispatching. There are many influencing factors and the prediction is difficult. Breakthroughs and innovations are needed in methods and ideas. For the prediction of future runoff in watersheds, the existing methods can be divided into data statistics methods and genetic analysis methods. The former mainly includes classical regression analysis methods, neural network methods, nonlinear time series analysis methods and fuzzy mathematics methods. Statistical relationships are mainly established through dat...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] Aiming at the above deficiencies or improvement needs of the prior art, the present invention provides a method and system for predicting the future hydropower generation capacity of a watershed considering climate change, thus solving the existing problems in the prior art that do not consider the climate change of the watershed and the underlying surface of the watershed Technical Problems of Uneven Distribution and Curse of Dimensionality

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