Power transformation equipment fault rate prediction method and system, equipment and readable storage medium

Abstract

The invention provides a power transformation equipment fault rate prediction method and system, equipment and a readable storage medium. The power transformation equipment fault rate prediction method comprises the steps: collecting the historical fault rate statistical data of power transformation equipment, and building a Weibull distribution fault rate function with the fault rate as a dependent variable and the time as an independent variable; collecting substation equipment state evaluation data, and establishing an equipment health index-based fault rate model by taking the fault rate as a dependent variable and the substation equipment health index as an independent variable; and configuring a function relationship between the equipment health index and the average operation time,performing simulation training on the comprehensive prediction model by taking historical statistical data of the power transformation equipment as a sample, solving to-be-estimated parameters, and finally obtaining the comprehensive prediction model. According to the power transformation equipment fault rate prediction method, data information such as online monitoring data, daily maintenance data and routine test data of the power transformation equipment is combined, and the equipment state condition is comprehensively reflected, and the development requirement of state maintenance of a current power system is met, and the fault rate of the power transformation equipment can be accurately predicted.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of fault detection of electric substation equipment, in particular to a method for predicting the fault rate of electric substation equipment, a system, equipment and a readable storage medium. Background technique [0002] Substation equipment is a power facility that transforms voltage, receives and distributes electric energy, controls the flow of power, and adjusts voltage in the power system. The substation equipment connects the power grids of all levels of voltage through its transformers. [0003] Based on the purpose, the substation equipment plays an important role in the power system, so it is necessary to detect the fault of the substation equipment during use or before use. If the substation equipment is in use, the substation equipment needs to be predicted and analyzed first, usually based on the time parameter failure rate of the substation equipment and the failure rate of the substa...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] At present, there is a large deviation in the prediction of the failure rate data of substation equipment under different influencing factors of the above statistics, which leads to the fact that the failure rate model using a single parameter cannot fully reflect the failure rate of the equipment, so that it is impossible to know the real value of the substation equipment for the prediction results. state, resulting in a large forecast deviation, unable to meet the forecast requirements

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