Drought and flood sharp turn risk assessment method

A risk assessment, drought and flood technology, applied in instruments, complex mathematical operations, climate change adaptation, etc.

Active Publication Date: 2020-09-18
SUN YAT SEN UNIV
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  • Claims
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for assessing the risk of drought and flood abrupt change to solve the problem of lack of assessment of alternate occurrence of drought and flood disasters

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  • Drought and flood sharp turn risk assessment method

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Embodiment Construction

[0023] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention.

[0024] The present invention provides a method for assessing the risk of sudden drought and flood, the implementation of the assessment method is as follows figure 1 shown, including the following steps:

[0025] S1, for a certain hydrometeorological variable, calculate its average time series in N consecutive times as P t , to extract the time series P lagged by one N time period t-1 , where P t is the first time series of drought and flood events, P t-1 is the second time series of drought-flood abrupt change events.

[0026] It should be pointed out that in S1, hydrometeorological variables include rainfall, runoff, water level and soil moisture, and the unit of time period includes hour, day, month and year, that is, any index in rainfall, runoff, water level and soil ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a drought and flood sudden turning risk assessment method. The method is based on hydrometeorological variables. The metod comprises the steps of: calculating an average time sequence Pt of continuous N time periods; extracting a time sequence Pt-1 lagging behind an N time period from the time sequence Pt-1; then, according to the time sequence Pt and Pt-1, determining drought and flood thresholds by using a threshold level method; and constructing a joint probability distribution function between Pt and Pt-1 based on a copula joint distribution function, and further constructing a condition distribution function model of drought-to-waterlogging and waterlogging-to-drought between Pt and Pt-1 to realize risk probability evaluation of drought-to-waterlogging and waterlogging-to-drought. After the model is established through the mode, the drought and flood sudden turning risk assessment method can effectively assess the possibility of drought and flood disastersin a certain period of a certain region, and can also predict the possibility of such risks in the region in a future climate scene according to meteorological data simulated and predicted in the future, thereby providing an accurate and reliable basis for resisting the drought and flood disasters and risk management decisions.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of risk assessment of natural disasters, in particular to a risk assessment method for sudden drought and flood. Background technique [0002] Disaster risk assessment is the core content of disaster management. Obtaining disaster risk information can provide accurate and reliable basis for drought and flood disaster resistance and risk management decision-making. [0003] With the development of mathematics, decision science, remote sensing, computer and other disciplines, disaster risk assessment has also experienced rapid development. More and more mathematical tools have been introduced, which has accelerated the pace of quantification of natural disaster risk assessment. [0004] Common disaster risk assessment methods include fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, tomographic analysis method, probability statistics method, gray system, artificial neural network and so on. Among them, the probability and statist...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/26G06F17/18
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q50/26G06F17/18Y02A10/40Y02A90/10
Inventor 刘智勇陈晓宏谢宇莹林凯荣涂新军张清涛
Owner SUN YAT SEN UNIV
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