A Scenario Prediction Method for Urban Community Social Security Chain Coupling Risk Evolution

Abstract

The invention discloses an urban community social security chain coupling risk evolution scenario estimation method, which belongs to the field of applied information technology. The inference method first uses the risk scenario identification model to dynamically identify various risk accidents of social security events and the SCJ model scenario primitives of the occurrence and development elements of risk scenario states at each stage, and determine the worst accident scenario of an event evolution and the scenario state in it. Then apply the worst accident scenario and scenario state to the risk scenario evolution model, and through the node definition and evolution rules of the evolution model, the risk evolution scenario library of each social security event based on the scenario prediction roadmap is obtained. Finally, by defining the risk expression method of scenario speculation roadmap based on the principle of GERT network reasoning function, analyzing the single evaluation unit in the chain evolution scenario of social security coupling risk one by one, and determining the risk status value of each event evolution path, so as to make a comprehensive analysis of the city. Provide a basis for emergency response and decision-making of community social security incidents.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention specifically relates to a method for estimating scenarios of social security chain coupling risk evolution in urban communities, and belongs to the field of applied information technology. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of my country's economy and science and technology, the acceleration of urbanization process has brought severe challenges to urban social security. Accompanied by various social security incidents, it has brought huge economic losses and bad social impact. The risk of urban social security is mainly reflected in the public security, criminal, violent and terrorist incidents and large-scale mass incidents that threaten public order and the safety of people's lives and property. The emergency decision-making paradigm of "scenario-response" can characterize the risk evolution process of social security in urban communities, incorporate existing information, knowledge and data into the specific scen...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] Conventional machine learning methods, such as Chinese invention patent CN2019108584189, disclose a risk prediction model training method, prediction method and device. This conventional machine learning-based risk prediction and management method cannot be directly applied to urban community society In security risk prediction and management, due to the particularity of social security risks in urban communities, new solutions must be developed to solve this problem

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