Multi-disaster coupling and secondary derivative evolution prediction system based on disaster chain

Abstract

The invention discloses a disaster chain-based multi-disaster coupling and secondary derivative evolution prediction system. The system comprises a disaster chain correlation knowledge modeling module, a multi-disaster emergency dynamic comprehensive management module and a multi-disaster coupling prediction module, the disaster chain correlation knowledge modeling module is used for constructinga disaster chain for natural disasters by using a disaster source to form a semantic network graph, and representing disaster chain knowledge by using a Bayesian network method in combination with actual background demand analysis of a cause and effect type disaster chain; the multi-disaster emergency dynamic comprehensive management module is used for realizing dynamic management of real-time processing, analysis and decision of natural disaster information; and the multi-disaster coupling prediction module divides a disaster chain-based prediction process into single-disaster prediction andmulti-disaster coupling prediction according to two factors of catastrophe and a disaster-affected body. According to the invention, through the multi-disaster coupling evolution model, occurred disasters can be analyzed in an omnibearing and multi-angle manner, and various emergency treatments after the disasters occur can be carried out.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of prediction of secondary derivative evolution of emergencies, and specifically refers to a disaster chain-based multi-disaster coupling and secondary derivative evolution prediction system. Background technique [0002] In 1987, seismologist Guo Zengjian defined "a phenomenon in which a series of disasters occur one after another" as "disaster chain", and further subdivided it into causal chain, homologous chain, mutually exclusive chain and dual chain, which was the first time in China Put forward the concept of "disaster chain". The occurrence of natural disaster chains has obvious chain characteristics, forming a complex disaster chain system. The causes of any kind of disaster are not isolated and static, but are all related to other factors. At the same time, the occurrence of any kind of disaster will have various effects on its surrounding environment. Through the analysis of various source disast...

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Problems solved by technology

[0007] Aiming at the deficiencies of the above-mentioned existing technologies, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a multi-disaster coupling and secondary derivative evolution prediction system based on disaster chains, so as to solve the problem that the existing single disaster prediction and deduction are not comprehensive, and the natural The secondary and derivative disasters that may be caused by disaster events are incomplete and inaccurate, and cannot provide a diversified decision-making support environment for the government to respond to sudden natural disasters.

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