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Propagation calculation method for designing flood uncertainty in reservoir flood control scheduling

A technology for designing floods and flood control dispatching, applied in the field of propagation calculations, can solve problems such as the uncertainty of reservoir flood control dispatching

Active Publication Date: 2021-09-10
XIAN UNIV OF TECH
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a calculation method for the propagation of design flood uncertainty in reservoir flood control scheduling, which solves the uncertainty caused by DFH in existing methods, resulting in the uncertainty of reservoir flood control scheduling

Method used

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  • Propagation calculation method for designing flood uncertainty in reservoir flood control scheduling
  • Propagation calculation method for designing flood uncertainty in reservoir flood control scheduling
  • Propagation calculation method for designing flood uncertainty in reservoir flood control scheduling

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment

[0160] Application to the flood control system of Ankang Reservoir in the Han River Basin:

[0161] Using the calculated integrated DFH in step 1, the annual maximum flood Q observed at Ankang Station P and annual maximum 3 day flood W 3 Calculate the joint design flood of two variables, and calculate the 200-year design flood process line of Ankang;

[0162] Using the reservoir flood control scheduling optimization model established in step 2, 3,000 DFHs that occur once in 200 years are used as OROM FC input to determine the optimal flood control dispatching scheme for 3000 groups of Ankang Reservoir, such as figure 2 shown, respectively with t p = 7, 20 and 34 are examples to show the flood control operation of Ankang Reservoir under DFH uncertainty, and the relationship between the design flood and the maximum storage capacity MRS of the reservoir is obtained;

[0163] Use the MRS of the maximum storage capacity of the process water reservoir in step 3 to analyze the u...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a propagation calculation method for designing flood uncertainty in reservoir flood control scheduling, and the method specifically comprises the steps of 1, obtaining an uncertain design flood hydrograph DFH based on a Copula model and in combination with a Bayes theorem; 2, establishing a reservoir flood control scheduling optimization model; and 3, quantifying the uncertainty of the design flood hydrograph DFH by using an information theory method, and performing propagation from the comprehensive DFH obtained in the step 1 to the reservoir flood control scheduling optimization model obtained in the step 2. The method provided by the invention solves the problem of uncertainty of reservoir flood control scheduling caused by uncertainty generated by DFH in the existing method.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of water conservancy engineering, and relates to a propagation calculation method of design flood uncertainty in reservoir flood control dispatching. Background technique [0002] Design flood is an important basis for planning and design of water conservancy projects, and is closely related to the flood control regulation rules of the reservoir. Whether it is accurate or not will directly affect the flood control safety of the reservoir. The traditional flood control dispatching rules are obtained on the premise of deterministic design flood, while the design flood hydrograph (Design Flood Hydrograph, DFH) has uncertainties, such as sample uncertainty, model uncertainty, parameter uncertainty Wait. If the uncertain DFH is input into the flood control system of the reservoir, it will inevitably affect the output of the system (that is, the flood control scheduling of the reservoir, such as the water level o...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F30/13G06F30/20G06F111/04
CPCG06F30/13G06F30/20G06F2111/04Y02A10/40
Inventor 郭爱军畅建霞王义民梁艺缤
Owner XIAN UNIV OF TECH
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