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114 results about "Bayes' theorem" patented technology

In probability theory and statistics, Bayes’ theorem (alternatively Bayes’ law or Bayes’ rule) describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. For example, if cancer is related to age, then, using Bayes’ theorem, a person's age can be used to more accurately assess the probability that they have cancer than can be done without knowledge of the person’s age.

Method for recommending context-aware Web service on basis of weighted time-space effects

The invention discloses a method for recommending context-aware Web service on the basis of weighted time-space effects. The method includes building weighted time decay models so as to find user sets with preference similar to preference of current users under condition that time decay effects are considered; acquiring user sets in contexts similar to current contexts of the users by the aid of location-aware similarity mining algorithms; building relation models of time-space correlation and user preference so as to obtain network service call records conforming to the current preference of the users; predicting QoS (quality of service) values of service by the aid of Bayes theorems on the basis of the obtained user sets with the preference similar to the preference of the current users under the condition that the time decay effects are considered, the user sets in the contexts similar to the current contexts of the users and the network service call records conforming to the current preference of the users so as to obtain the service with the highest degrees of satisfaction; evaluating outcome of the obtained service. The method has the advantage that the recommendation accuracy can be improved by the aid of the method.
Owner:LANZHOU UNIVERSITY

Combined model water level prediction method based on similarity search

The invention discloses a combined model water level prediction method based on similarity search. Water level of previous days related to a day to be predicted is confirmed to be sequences to be matched by utilizing correlation coefficient. A series of water level time sequences which are not similar to the sequences to be matched are searched from historical data on the basis of similarity search and eliminated from original time sequences and then act as training sets of a prediction model. The method mainly comprises data preprocessing, similarity search and a combined prediction model. Data preprocessing aims at filling gap data and restoring error data. According to similarity search, a series of time sequences which are not similar to the sequences to be matched are eliminated from the historical data of previous years by utilizing dynamic bending distance and the fixed slide window technology. The combined prediction model has two basic models: a BP neural network improved by an LM algorithm and a support vector machine, and proportion of the basic models in current prediction is dynamically adjusted by utilizing the Bayes theorem according to prediction performance of each basic model at the previous moment. The high-precision and real-time requirements required by flood prevention and disaster resistance can be realized.
Owner:HOHAI UNIV

Method for estimating SOC of power battery based on anti-outlier robust unscented Kalman filter

ActiveCN109459705AOvercoming the problem of outlier interferenceImprove robustnessElectrical testingObservational errorModel parameters
The invention discloses a method for estimating an SOC of a power battery based on anti-outlier robust unscented Kalman filter, and belongs to the technical field of power batteries. The method comprises the following steps that a state and observation equation of the power battery is designed through the combination of a composite model method and an ampere-hour method, a model equation of the vehicle-mounted battery is determined, and a battery equivalence model is established; model parameters are identified, relevant parameters of the battery model observation equation are identified by means of a recursive least square method, the iteration frequency is identified with the system input amount as continuous excitation, and therefore a final result is converged and tends to be stable; an improved anti-outlier robust unscented Kalman filter algorithm is adopted for estimating the SOC of the battery. By means of the method, a measurement error model is corrected into a normalized contaminated normal distribution model, a posterior probability of the occurrence of outliers is calculated in combination with the Bayesian theorem to serve as a weighting coefficient for the self-adaptive adjustment to measure and predict related variances and gain matrices, and the problem of outlier interference can be effectively solved.
Owner:JIANGSU UNIV OF TECH

Novel optic disc separation method and system

The invention discloses a novel optic disc separation method and system. The method comprises the steps that S100, an angular point detection algorithm is utilized to detect points of interest aroundan optic disc in an eye fundus image, and convex hulls surrounding the points of interest are calculated to extract an optic disc region image; S200, according to a feature similarity between pixel points of the optic disc region image, the pixel points are grouped, and super pixels capable of replacing a large quantity of pixel expression image features are obtained; S300, prior probability distribution is calculated based on the convex hulls and the super pixels, color histograms are subjected to statistical analysis inside and outside the convex hulls respectively, and an observation likelihood probability is calculated; S400, the posterior probability that each pixel point f belongs to an optic disc region is calculated according to the Bayesian theorem, and a posterior probability distribution diagram is obtained; and S500, the optic disc is separated from the eye fundus image based on the posterior probability distribution diagram and through standard Hough Transformation circledetection. By the adoption of the separation strategy from rough to fine, precise separation of the optic disc from the eye fundus image is realized under a Bayesian model framework.
Owner:NORTHEASTERN UNIV

X-ray pulsar navigation TOA estimation method based on Bayes estimation

The invention belongs to the technical field of X-ray pulsar autonomous navigation and discloses an X-ray pulsar navigation TOA estimation method based on Bayes estimation. Under the condition that the overall trend of a photon counting rate accords with the Poisson distribution, an X-ray photon arrival time sequence can be modeled into a non-homogeneous Poisson process; the flow characteristics of PSR B0531 + 21 pulsars accord with the Poisson distribution, and a Poisson distribution signal model is established and divided into a time-frequency model and a frequency-stabilizing model; the frequency-stabilizing model of the photon sequence is selected to perform Fourier transform and then the frequency-stabilizing model is converted into a frequency domain to obtain a photon flow probability function expression with time delay estimation parameters; the photon flow probability function expression is converted into a likelihood function capable of calculating a time delay parameter by using a Bayes theorem for solving; and a Tool multi-mode nested sampling algorithm is calculated by Bayes estimation, iteration is carried out, and the parameter estimation value of the likelihood function is further calculated. The invention effectively improves the TOA estimation precision within the observation time and meets the future engineering development requirement of pulsar navigation.
Owner:XIDIAN UNIV

Network virtualization environment fault diagnosis method based on relevance of symptoms and faults

The invention provides a network virtualization environment fault diagnosis method based on the relevance of symptoms and faults. According to the network virtualization environment fault diagnosis method, in two symptom-fault relations including the relation of the virtual network observation symptom-a virtual fault node and relation of an RVF-a physical fault node, the same diagnosis method is adopted twice; firstly, a suspicious virtual fault node set is selected and obtained from an observation symptom set in the virtual network based on the Bayes' theorem; secondly, an intersection set of the observation symptom set and a suspicious symptom set is obtained and used as an actual symptom set, wherein the suspicious symptom set is composed of all relevant symptoms of the suspicious virtual fault node set; a virtual fault node set is generated according to the actual symptom set and is used as a virtual diagnosis result, wherein the virtual diagnosis result can explain the generation of all the symptoms of the actual symptom set; NRVFs of virtual faults are excluded based on the same method, so that physical faults are obtained. By the adoption of the network virtualization environment fault diagnosis method based on the relevance of the symptoms and the faults, more accurate diagnosis of a network virtual environment can be achieved.
Owner:BEIJING UNIV OF POSTS & TELECOMM

An algorithm for correcting structure model parameters based on a frequency response function

The invention relates to an algorithm for correcting structure model parameters based on a frequency response function, which comprises the following steps of: acquiring time history data and time history response data, and introducing a multivariate circle symmetry proportion distribution theorem to derive and obtain a probability density function and a covariance matrix of the actually measuredfrequency response function; Introducing a prediction error and a to-be-corrected parameter to obtain a covariance matrix containing the to-be-corrected parameter; Obtaining a probability density function of a frequency response function under the action of single-point excitation according to the determinant and the inverse theorem of the matrix; Obtaining a maximum likelihood function expressedin a form of a maximum likelihood function and a logarithm maximum likelihood function according to a maximum likelihood principle; Obtaining a posterior probability density function of the random variable according to the Bayesian theorem; And expressing the posterior probability density function as a logarithm likelihood function form, so that an objective function is obtained. The uncertainty of the correction parameters is quantized, the calculation precision of the correction parameters is improved, and the correction of the structure finite element model is realized.
Owner:HEFEI UNIV OF TECH
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