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Mixed runoff area secondary flood forecasting method based on WRF-Hydro model

A model and runoff technology, applied in the field of secondary flood forecasting in mixed runoff areas, can solve problems such as the inability to eliminate rainfall forecast errors, and achieve the effects of improving secondary flood forecasting results, improving parameters, and reducing the influence of parameter uncertainty.

Active Publication Date: 2022-01-04
CHINA INST OF WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER RES
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The disadvantage of this method is that the calibration of WRF-Hydro model parameters cannot eliminate the rainfall forecast error caused by driving data. Therefore, a more realistic rainfall driving is very necessary, such as multi-source data assimilation technology to assimilate observation data of weather radar, etc. , can improve the accuracy of parameter optimization to a certain extent, improve the accuracy of rainfall forecast and the effect of hydrological forecast

Method used

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  • Mixed runoff area secondary flood forecasting method based on WRF-Hydro model
  • Mixed runoff area secondary flood forecasting method based on WRF-Hydro model
  • Mixed runoff area secondary flood forecasting method based on WRF-Hydro model

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Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0043] Such as figure 1 As shown, step 100 is executed to collect typical rain and flood process data, coordinate information of hydrological stations in the study area and measured runoff information of runoff events to be studied.

[0044]Execute step 110, use high-resolution assimilated rainfall data to replace the rainfall data output by the atmospheric model, provide forecasts of meteorological elements during the operation period, and set the initial parameters of the WRF-Hydro hydrological model, set the parameters of WRF-Hydro to default values, and set the boundary conditions and terrain data.

[0045] Execute step 120, output the runoff forecast result based on the initial parameters of the WRF-Hydro hydrological model, and output the runoff forecast result according to the time step X (in this embodiment, X=1 hour).

[0046] Step 130 is executed to evaluate the runoff forecast results. Based on the comparison of the runoff forecast results with the measured flow ...

Embodiment 2

[0069] The technical solution adopted in the present invention is a WRF-Hydro model used in the forecasting method of secondary flood in the mixed runoff area. The basic parameters of the hydrological model are set and the evaluation index system of runoff forecasting effect is constructed; the evaluation index system of runoff forecasting effect is constructed; the model parameters are adjusted according to the runoff forecasting evaluation index system, and the applicable parameter values ​​are determined. The invention reduces the uncertainty of parameter selection of the WRF-Hydro hydrological model to a certain extent, and provides a basis for the runoff forecast of the model in the research area. Such as figure 2 As shown, this method is implemented according to the following steps:

[0070] (1) Collection of typical rain and flood process data: collect the coordinate information of hydrological stations in the study area and the measured runoff information of the runo...

Embodiment 3

[0086] The invention proposes a WRF-Hydro model. A WRF-Hydro model is used in a secondary flood forecasting method in a mixed runoff area, which can adjust parameters more objectively, and the published runoff forecast results are more objective.

[0087] In order to make the hydrological model better serve the secondary flood simulation and forecast in the mixed runoff area, so as to further meet the flood forecast requirements in the mixed runoff area. The present invention aims at the shortcomings of WRF-Hydro model application and testing, combined with the characteristics of rainfall and runoff in small watersheds, comprehensively considers the four flood elements of flood peak flow, peak time, runoff and flood process, and combines the forecast results with the measured flow process Compared with the data, it is preferable to adjust the parameters sensitive to the WRF-Hydro model, so that the hydrological model can better meet the flood forecasting needs of small and medi...

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Abstract

The invention provides a mixed runoff area secondary flood forecasting method based on a WRF-Hydro model, and the method comprises the steps: collecting typical rainfall flood process data, and also comprises the following steps: employing high-resolution assimilation rainfall data in an input field, and setting WRF-Hydro hydrological mode parameters; and outputting a runoff forecasting result based on the WRF-Hydro hydrological mode parameters; evaluating a runoff forecast result; when the runoff forecast result is not in the allowable error range, optimizing the WRF-Hydro hydrological mode parameters; on the basis of the optimized WRF-Hydro hydrological mode parameters, outputting and evaluating a new runoff forecasting result; and publishing a forecast result. Aiming at the defects of the current WRF-Hydro land surface hydrological mode test and application, the method combines the characteristics of a mixed runoff production area, comprehensively considers four flood elements including the flood peak flow, the peak present time, the runoff and the flood process, reduces the uncertainty of WRF-Hydro hydrological mode simulation and forecasting with the least parameter scheme, therefore, the hydrological model can better meet the flood forecasting requirements of small and medium-sized drainage basins.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of runoff simulation and forecasting, in particular to a secondary flood forecasting method for mixed runoff production areas based on the WRF-Hydro model. Background technique [0002] In traditional hydrological forecasting, the input of the hydrological model is mainly the "falling rain" observed by rain gauges. The forecast time depends on the confluence time of the basin, and the accuracy of the forecast is limited by the number of rain gauges. In order to further extend the forecast lead time and improve the forecast accuracy, the mesoscale numerical weather prediction model (NWP) is increasingly used to replace the "falling rain" model. Currently, combining hydrological models with fine-scale NWP models (1–10 km) for real-time flow forecasting has become a promising approach. Coupling of hydrological models with fine-scale atmospheric models has proven possible to adequately predict flows at watersh...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04
CPCG06Q10/04Y02A10/40
Inventor 刘佳李传哲刘昱辰韩婧怡陈娟于福亮王一之张善钧
Owner CHINA INST OF WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER RES