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System, method, and apparatus for modeling project reliability

a project reliability and modeling technology, applied in the field of project reliability prediction, can solve the problems of not providing early prediction of failure rate, software or hardware, and not describing making early reliability predictions

Inactive Publication Date: 2015-01-22
RAYTHEON CO
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Benefits of technology

The present patent disclosure uses mathematical functions to predict the reliability growth of software and hardware in the future. It also mentions various models, such as the power-law model, for reliability growth analysis. However, none of these models have been used to make early predictions of failure rates from the known conditions of software or hardware. The patent aims to provide a solution by incorporating early reliability predictions from historical data to improve the reliability of software and hardware systems.

Problems solved by technology

None of them, however, describes making early reliability predictions from the historically known conditions for software or hardware, or software and hardware together.
Accordingly, prior art models only considered analyzing failures after design completion, and did not provide early prediction of failure rate.

Method used

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  • System, method, and apparatus for modeling project reliability
  • System, method, and apparatus for modeling project reliability
  • System, method, and apparatus for modeling project reliability

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

example 1

New Software Failure Rate at the Maturity Time

[0080]KSLOC count: 208

[0081]Acceleration factor: A=1

[0082]SEI level 4=1.0 fault / KSLOC

N0=1.0·208=208 faults

[0083]With the assumptions of t1=1 sec.= 1 / 3,600 hour; T=4 years, p=0.03

t1=2.778·10−4

T=4·8,760=3.504·104

{circumflex over (β)}=0.285

{circumflex over (λ)}=10.286

The final failure rate at the maturity time:

ω^(TP)=λ^·β^·tβ^-1=1.637·10-3failureshour

example 2

COTS Software Reliability

[0084]

N0=1.0·20,000,000

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PUM

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Abstract

A system, method and apparatus arranged for early-stage reliability-growth models for predicting project reliability at an early stage. These predictions can integrate with an overall system reliability model. Embodiments include predicting reliability of hardware, software, or any other engineering project.

Description

GOVERNMENT LICENSE RIGHTS[0001]This invention was made with government support under government contract no. FA8807-10-C-0001 awarded by the United States Air Force. The government has certain rights in the invention.FIELD[0002]Embodiments pertain to predicting project reliability. Exemplary projects include hardware, software, or both.BACKGROUND[0003]Software developers and users desire early reliability estimates for projects or products. Faults (also called bugs or defects) lead to failures, e.g., a system malfunction. Current models for providing early failure rate or reliability estimates are not mathematically accurate. Current models extrapolate the number of remaining faults based on their assumed statistical distribution when appearing as failures. The prior models, which use continuous statistical distributions are mathematically or physically incorrect, and do not provide early reliability estimates. Thus, prior art reliability estimates are unreliable.[0004]Additionally,...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(United States)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50G06F11/00
CPCG06F17/5009G06F11/008G06Q10/0637
Inventor PETERSON, JON R.KRASICH, MILENA
Owner RAYTHEON CO
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