Method for predicting epidemic situation by spatial heterogeneity-based infectious disease propagation model

A non-uniformity and propagation model technology, applied in the field of epidemic prediction of infectious disease propagation model, to achieve the effect of improving control, improving pertinence and efficiency

Inactive Publication Date: 2010-07-14
中国人民解放军防化指挥工程学院
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  • Method for predicting epidemic situation by spatial heterogeneity-based infectious disease propagation model
  • Method for predicting epidemic situation by spatial heterogeneity-based infectious disease propagation model
  • Method for predicting epidemic situation by spatial heterogeneity-based infectious disease propagation model

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Embodiment Construction

[0073] First of all, suppose there are two districts in the city: District 1 and District 2, that is, i=1, 2, N 1 , N 2 are the total number of people in District 1 and District 2 respectively; R 1 , R 2 Respectively, the number of people who moved out of districts 1 and 2; r is the infection rate (assuming that the infection rates of districts 1 and 2 are the same); 1 , I 2 is the number of infected people in districts 1 and 2; S 1 , S 2 is the susceptible number of districts 1 and 2; λ 1 , lambda 2 It is the admission rate of districts 1 and 2 (assuming that the admission rate is only the number of infected patients at time 0 of one day); that is: N 1 = I 1 + S 1 + R ...

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Abstract

The invention provides a method for predicting epidemic situation by a spatial heterogeneity-based infectious disease propagation model. If subareas comprising an area 1 and an area 2 exist in a city, a common rule that crowd flow causes the propagation of infectious diseases and the statistical data (obtained in the form of questionnaire and the like) about the dynamic flow of the crowd in a day can be explained according to a formula, and a method with better operability is established on the basis. The invention aims at reasonably describing a fact, namely the flow that people go out early and come home late for work, shopping and the like does not cause the migration of population macroscopically, but can cause transregional diffusion of the infectious diseases. As the daily periodic flow of the population increases the number of infected persons in a net input subarea, diseases are diffused in space to change the development speed of the epidemic situation. Particularly, at the initial stage of the epidemic situation, the transregional diffusion has an extremely high speed. The thought has heuristic significance for searching regional economic problems such as transregional consumption, labor input and export, and the like.

Description

Technical field: [0001] The invention relates to an epidemic prediction method based on an infectious disease transmission model considering spatial heterogeneity, and belongs to the field of method control. Background technique: [0002] Common infectious disease transmission models assume that various groups of people are evenly distributed in space, so they can be described by ordinary differential equations. However, for the case of a large propagation area, the spatial non-uniformity needs to be considered. [0003] The spread of infectious diseases has two levels. One is the spread within a small-scale close contact population, which can be assumed to be confined to a homogeneous community, and the transmission speed is proportional to the product of the infected population and the susceptible population. Another level is the spread of space, which is caused by the migration of pathogenic microorganisms carried by the crowd in a large area. Practice has shown that fo...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 刘峰黄顺祥周学志刘平张文丽王永祥吴耀鑫
Owner 中国人民解放军防化指挥工程学院
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