Wind farm risk evaluation method based on Monte Carlo method

A Monte Carlo method, wind farm technology, applied in the direction of electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of the safe and stable operation of the power system, and achieve fast results

Active Publication Date: 2012-12-19
ZHEJIANG UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] However, unlike other conventional thermal power plants and hydropower plants, the output power of wind farms is constantly fluctuating, and large-scale wind power grid integration will have a certain impact on the safe and stable operation of the power system.

Method used

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  • Wind farm risk evaluation method based on Monte Carlo method
  • Wind farm risk evaluation method based on Monte Carlo method
  • Wind farm risk evaluation method based on Monte Carlo method

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Experimental program
Comparison scheme
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Embodiment Construction

[0033] Step (1). The wind speed sequence prediction model based on the time series method is established;

[0034] 1-1. Raw data normalization:

[0035] ;

[0036] In the formula For the standardized data, is the estimated standard deviation of the original data, is the original data; , respectively Estimates of the mean and variance of :

[0037] ;

[0038] ;

[0039] N in the described step (1) is the number of wind speed sequences;

[0040] 1-2. Model identification:

[0041] Model identification is based on the sample mean value, autocorrelation function, and partial correlation function of a given sequence to determine which one of AR(p), MA(q) and ARMA(p,q) the sequence should belong to. If the partial correlation function of the sequence {xt} is truncated after p steps, the sequence can be judged as AR(p) sequence; if the autocorrelation function of the sequence {xt} is truncated after q steps, the sequence can be judged as Sequence MA(q); if the...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a wind farm risk evaluation method based on a Monte Carlo method. The wind farm risk evaluation method includes the steps: (1) building a wind speed sequence prediction model on the basis of a time sequence method by means of original data standardization, model recognition and parameter determination; and (2) evaluating the reliability of a large power grid system concerning a wind farm on the basis of the sequential Monte Carlo method by means of random sampling and reliability evaluation. Randomness of the wind speed is adequately considered on the basis of a large quality of wind power databases, and the method is high in speed by the aid of the Monte Carlo high-speed algorithm.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of power system risk assessment, and in particular relates to a wind farm risk estimation method based on a Monte Carlo method. Background technique [0002] Wind energy is a clean and abundant renewable energy. As countries around the world pay more and more attention to issues such as energy shortage, environmental protection and climate change, wind power generation, as one of the effective measures to reduce air pollution and harmful gas emissions, has attracted more and more attention. Vigorously developing grid-connected wind power generation is an important strategic measure for my country to alleviate the contradiction between energy supply and demand, reduce environmental pollution, adjust energy structure, and change the mode of economic growth. [0003] However, unlike other conventional thermal power plants and hydropower plants, the output power of wind farms fluctuates continuously, and large-scale wind...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 李志郭创新
Owner ZHEJIANG UNIV
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