Calculating method of utilization rate of electric transmission line based on probability load flow

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of planning of power transmission networks of electric power systems. For assisting planning personnel of the power transmission network to evaluate a power grid capacity margin in the future, discriminate system weak link recognition and an unreasonable grid structure, balance reliability and economy of a power grid planning scheme, and the like, the invention provides a calculating method of a utilization rate of an electric transmission line based on probability load flow. The technical scheme includes that the calculating method comprises the following steps: 1), carrying out definition description on the utilization rate of the electric transmission line; 2), building a probability distribution model of loads of N years in the future and a generator shut-down probability model; 3), generating random loads and generator random shut-down states; 4), serving lowest cost of total output of each generator set as an economic distribution objective function, and satisfying constraint conditions at the same time; 5), calculating line load flow values through a direct current load flow method or an alternate current load flow method; and 6), recoding the line load flow values, obtained by simulation everytime, of the line. The calculating method is mainly applied to the planning of the power transmission networks of the electric power systems.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of power system transmission network planning, in particular to a method for calculating the utilization rate of transmission lines based on probability flow. Background technique [0002] The evaluation of the quality of the power grid planning scheme mainly depends on the design of the evaluation index system, and the evaluation index plays an important role in this process. The evaluation indicators of transmission network planning mainly include three categories: reliability indicators, economic indicators and flexibility indicators [1-4] , but few studies have considered the utilization of transmission lines. The utilization rate of transmission lines can not only reflect the load level and reserve status of the planned lines, but also assess the reliability and economy of the scheme, which is of great significance for the transformation of the grid planning scheme from extensive to intensive, so it is of great ...

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Problems solved by technology

Most of these indicators are calculated from the historical data of the power grid, and the future planning of the power grid involves a large number of uncertain factors, such as the uncertainty of medium and long-term load forecasting, changes in generator output plans, and equipment failure out of operation, etc., and the future planning system does not have Available statistical data make these indicators also difficult to apply to the evaluation analysis of future grid planning

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