A method for ultra-short-term power load forecasting and early warning

A power load, ultra-short-term technology, applied in the information field, can solve problems such as data fluctuations that have a large impact on accuracy, information instability, and different power consumption characteristics in process sections, so as to reduce dispatch workload and improve power utilization. , the effect of reducing electricity costs
CN103295075BInactive Publication Date: 2016-09-28SHENYANG AEROSPACE UNIVERSITY
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN Β· China
Patent Type
Patents(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
SHENYANG AEROSPACE UNIVERSITY
Publication Date
2016-09-28
Estimated Expiration
Not applicable Β· inactive patent

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Abstract

The invention discloses an ultra-short-term power load forecasting and early warning method based on a Kalman filter and wavelet echo state network. In order to solve the problem that noise and the like are contained in power load data, a Kalman filtering method is adopted to conduct real-time estimating on 'collected data', with the help of a forgetting factor, the weight of old-fashioned data is weakened, and prediction accuracy is improved. Before ultra-short-term load forecasting is conducted, firstly, a principal component is used for analyzing and determining main working procedures for influencing the change of a power load, the main working procedures are used as the input of a power load capacity prediction model, afterwards, wavelets are used for decomposing the loads of different spectral characteristics (high frequency, follow-up and stability) of the power load, echo state network singe power loads are respectively established for predicting and modeling, various forecasting components are integrated to obtain a total load variation trend, and ultimately an early warning test is conducted on the prediction model specified by a user.
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Description

Technical field:

[0001] The invention relates to a power load forecasting and early warning method, in particular to an ultra-short-term power load forecasting and early warning method based on Kalman filtering and wavelet echo state network, belonging to the field of information technology. Background technique:

[0002] Large-scale industrial enterprises are large consumers of electricity load. The production process is composed of many interrelated production links. The power consumption of each link is determined by its power consumption characteristics and production operation conditions. The total load of the power grid is closely related to the production and operation conditions of the enterprise. The particularity of production results in the high frequency and large amplitude of the power load in some processes, showing significantly different characteristics from the usual regional power grid. Although the company-owned power plant has sufficient power generation capac...

Claims

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