Infectious disease epidemic situation optimal control method

A technology for optimal control and infectious disease, applied in the field of optimal control of infectious disease epidemics, which can solve the problems of low cost of treatment for infected persons

Inactive Publication Date: 2013-11-13
中国人民解放军防化学院
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] In order to solve the problem of optimal control of infectious disease epidemic situation and realize the minimum cost of infectious disease epidemic situation control and treatment cost of infected persons, the present invention proposes an optimal control method of infectious disease epidemic situation, which realizes the optimization of infectious disease control cost and control effect

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  • Infectious disease epidemic situation optimal control method
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  • Infectious disease epidemic situation optimal control method

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Embodiment Construction

[0024] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with specific embodiments.

[0025] A method for optimal control of an epidemic situation of an infectious disease, the specific implementation steps of which are as follows:

[0026] Step 1. Determine the expression of the objective function J of the epidemic control cost of infectious diseases:

[0027] J=A C (I, E, N I , N E ,D,P,O k )+B C (H c ,M I)+D C (η S ,M I ) (1)

[0028] Among them, A c (I, E, N I , N E ,D,P,O k ) is the epidemic prevention cost function:

[0029] A c ( I , E , N I , N E , D , P , O k ) = Σ ...

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of propagation and control of epidemic diseases, and relates to an infectious disease epidemic situation optimal control method. The prior art has the defects that the control parameters for the epidemic situation control scheme are not subjected to optimal control; and in the control process of infectious disease epidemic situation, the stricter the control measures are, the higher the control cost is, and the less the number of infected persons is, so the optimal control problems of determining the values of control parameters and minimizing the control cost and the treatment cost of the infected persons need to be urgently solved. The infectious disease epidemic situation optimal control method comprises the following steps of firstly, determining the target function of the control cost of the infectious disease epidemic situation, and then utilizing a genetic algorithm to optimize and solve the control parameter value which is used for minimizing the minimum target function value of the control cost of the infectious disease epidemic situation. The method has the advantage that the optimal control problem of minimizing the control cost and the treatment cost of the infected persons is solved, so the control cost after optimizing is far less than the control cost before optimizing.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of epidemic spread and control, and relates to an optimal control method for an epidemic situation of an infectious disease. Background technique [0002] In January 2002, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) first broke out in Guangdong Province of my country, and was imported into Beijing in early March 2003, and then spread rapidly in Beijing. At the same time, it also caused outbreaks worldwide. The outbreaks in Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Beijing and Taiwan were particularly severe in my country. According to estimates by the World Health Organization, SARS caused a loss of about US$30 billion to the global economy. 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) outbreak in the world, on June 11, the World Health Organization announced its alert level as the highest level of influenza alert level 6. In addition to causing direct casualties and huge medical expenses, Influenza A H1N1 Influenza has serious indirect effects on the economy, ...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 黄顺祥刘峰李静关彩虹王新明
Owner 中国人民解放军防化学院
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